Description: Investment Fallacies: Mathematical modeling of social phenomena

Description: Investment Fallacies: On the Validity of Common Portfolio Return Assumptions

Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: Surveys the outlook for interest rates among Inv Symposium participants, as of Feb 29 2016.

Description: Explains the more granular breakout of bond RBC factors proposed to the NAIC. Evaluates alternative asset allocation choices for insurers under the new rules.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of Independence

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk

Description: In this article the author concludes that “terrorism may foster a sense of conservatism that we may now need in the marketplace. Now that policy may have to be changed. In the process, risk will become better understood, common sense can replace, to some extent, the irrational behavior or excessive risk taking of the past and we will all appreciate our financial situation much more, and won’t expose ourselves to unrealistic expectations as much Hopefully the actuarial profession can respond to the challenge, since we are the best qualified to quantify such risks in the marketplace.”

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns