Description: This is the first of a two-part article introducing and elaborating an “Adaptor” strategy for ERM. Such a strategy is intended to fulfil two purposes: first, switching among four styles of risk-coping strategies in order to track qualitative changes in a business’s risk environment; and, second, to support the business in navigating with resilience through all the seasons of a business-economic cycle, i.e., of boom, bust, moderate, uncertain. This latter requires careful study of the nature of resilience, the familiar idea of bounce back, and the less familiar idea of bounce forward. Part I of our article is underpinned therefore by a supplementary document (available from https://riskviews.wordpress.com/adaptor-exceptionalism/), which addresses the issue of structural change in a business or economy. It draws heavily on ideas taken from the discipline of control engineering, as well as some from ecology, social anthropology, and economics. The entire two-part article is thus an exercise in cross-disciplinary Systems Thinking.

Description: This report provides actuaries and other finance professionals with an example of running the Medicaid Unwinding model with results at the national level on projected changes in both acuity and enrollment for Medicaid and Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Description: Hear about some applications using quantile regression-derived individual and group claim distributions and how they may be used in various traditional health care modeling situations. The session will not focus on the technical use of quantile regression to obtain estimates of claim distributions, but more so is intended to focus on the uses of the distributions in actuarial modeling and the additive framework in assessing claims distributions. Presenters will show how actuaries can better assess risks by focusing on the individual- and group-specific claims distributions as opposed to traditional point-estimate-centric models.

Description: This project models and forecasts premature cardiovascular mortality, with a focus on two main risk factors - obesity status and education attainment level. It investigates the role of obesity and education in determining age-sex-specific premature cardiovascular mortality.

Description: This report explores the behavioral factors influencing insurance purchase among Gen Z and Millennials for forward-looking purposes, leveraging a rich dataset spanning 22 markets across six continents.

Description: In this webcast, presenters will outline the key content in ERM ASOPs 46, 47 and 55 and explore the impact each ASOP has on practitioners working in these fields. We will also describe the revision work currently under way in the ERM Committee of the Actuarial Standards Board.

Description: Health care has changed rapidly over the past couple of years. The pandemic has shifted consumer behavior in how and where they receive health care as well as consumer attitudes toward health care. Payers continue to design innovative solutions in responses to their patient’s needs and expectations. These changes in consumer behaviors and the responses by payers are expected to impact both health care cost and utilization. Discuss changes in health care that have emerged due to the pandemic and how they are expected to influence actuarial assumptions. Explore epidemiological models commonly used in the industry, the considerations when using these models, as well as the challenges with regards to gathering and interpreting relevant experience data. By attending this session, you will be able to: Identify shifts in consumer behavior that have emerged from the pandemic and describe how payers are responding to new patient expectations. Discuss how these post-pandemic changes by consumers and payers influence medical spending. Determine which actuarial assumptions are impacted and how and if the impact is expected to be temporary or permanent. Discuss considerations taken by actuaries and challenges faced when modelling actuarial assumptions post pandemic.

Description: There is increasing industry interest in applying behavioral science to optimize product design decisions and improve outcomes for both insurers and their customers. With a growing set of options within product designs, predicting consumer behavior continues to get increasingly complex. Join this webcast for an overview of key behavioral economic concepts. Key insights will be shared from two SOA projects that explore how behavioral economic techniques can be used in various parts of the life insurance new business process and inforce management.

Description: What is a vitagion? Is there such thing as catastrophic longevity? What does a 1 in 200 year mortality loss event look like? How might actuaries use mortality scenarios in their practice? Explore how to move beyond simplistic stress testing with singular percentage shocks to building a robust set of information, derived from stochastically generated scenarios for longevity and excess mortality outcomes. This data can inform assumption setting, longevity swaps, capital levels, and risk management. These concepts apply to life insurers, pension actuaries, and reinsurers. By attending the session, you will: - Understand what is a loss exceedance curve is and how it may be useful to quantify tail risks. - Comprehend how to incorporate stochastic variability into longevity and excess mortality assumptions. - Find out what elements go into a stochastic prediction of extreme mortality events using nested models. - Learn how to add more depth to youractuarial assumptions.

Description: As effective dates for major changes in insurance accounting are rapidly approaching, insurers find themselves at various stages of their implementation programs. Driven by the need for compliance and desire for operational excellence, companies are transforming by reimagining their processes, leveraging technology enablers, redefining roles and responsibilities, and enhancing risk management, governance, and controls. Companies that proactively include risk and control elements in their accounting change implementation programs benefit from improved outcomes, enhanced investment returns, early identification, and mitigating of risk. Focus on risk and controls considerations around accounting change programs and how strategic partnerships with internal audit and ERM groups can benefit these significant transformation programs. By attending the session, you will: Be able to articulate key considerations around risk and controls for accounting change implementation programs.