Description: This report discusses drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.

Description: This is a letter from Jan M. Hoem to Arnold F. Shapiro about Exposed-to-risk considerations based on the Balducci assumption and other assumptions in the analysis of mortality.

Description: This study develops mortality ratios, using contemporary population tables and standard industry tables as the base of expected deaths, for 3,037 members 2,811 Fellows and 226 Associates of the Society of Actuaries observed from January 1, 1955 through December 31, 2004.

Description: This article discusses the details of being classified as cognitively impaired, particularly the relationship between being classified as cognitively impaired and subsequent mortality experience and the effect of cognitive impairment on mortality rates.

Description: In the June 2014 issue of Product Matters, Doug Robbins of Pacific Life authored a fascinating article entitled “Velocity of Diversification.” Therein, he proposed a pricing measure that describes the “…speed at which confidence in profitability is attained”. How can stochastic modeling of mortality be applied to analyze the velocity of diversification, and how would that measure be affected by volatility in the underlying assumptions?

Description: This article discusses the comparative results from the SOA Mortality Table Structure survey. From Reinsurance Section News, November 2007, Issue No. 61.

Description: As a life reinsurer, understanding mortality risk is mission critical. Superior models of mortality risk lead to more competitive pricing in profitable market segments and more efficient use of capital. Surprisingly, modern statistical tools such as predictive modeling have not previously been used to model mortality data to gain this edge. In this paper, we present the use of a predictive modeling technique called projection pursuit regression PPR to model mortality data. We first describe the process of creating a PPR model using inter-company mortality data collected by the Individual Life Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries, and present the resulting model. We then discuss the process of using this model as a starting point for creating a more detailed PPR model of internal company mortality data.

Description: In this paper, we study a survival regression model known as Cox's proportional Hazards model. We assume that the data available are already grouped and develop a minimum distance estimation procedure that is also applicable when the data are also left or right censored. Asymptotic properties of the estimators are established and the numerical implementation of the method based on an iterated reweighted least squares algorithm is discussed.

Description: This article investigates the simplicity of the Balducci hypothesis, and compares the fractional-age death probability given by three widely used assumptions: uniform distribution of deaths, the Balducci hypothesis, and constant force of mortality [1, 2].

Description: The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which Makeham's or Gompertz's laws describe recent insurance and population mortality analyze how the constants in the two laws vary with respect to some factors and propose a simple extension to Makeham's law to account for recent departures from the laws, related to difference in sex. Presented at Actuarial Research Conference at Ball State University, September 1, 1978