Description: This report describes a simple way to construct a bivariate copula with specified marginals and partially specified dependence. For example, the method allows one to model tail behavior scenarios while holding the core of the joint distribution fixed. An Excel workbook named CopulaExample.xls is provided to illustrate the method, including its use in Monte Carlo simulation.

Description: The following case study walks through the steps of a predictive modeling exercise to illustrate one way analytics can streamline the underwriting paradigm.

Description: This article provides an an alternate, statistical approach, to graduation. Both single and multiple decrement models are considered and theoretical results are obtained for some specific mortality models. From: ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE, 1979 VOL. 2.

Description: Many seniors who own houses in the United States have most of their wealth in their houses. Home Equity Conversion Mortgages are designed to allow seniors to borrow money against their house. This paper describes a stochastic simulation approach used to estimate the amount of a level-payment annuity payable as long as the senior is alive and living in his/her home. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2.

Description: This session is a primer on how to apply Gestalt psychology to display quantitative information to improve neural receptiveness. While much of brain functioning is still a mystery to psychologists and neuroscientists, we do understand a great deal about which parts of the brain engage or disengage given visual cues. Actuaries are often tasked with presenting very technical information and are prone to focus more on the substance of numerical data rather than a pictorial presentation based on neural preferences. This presentation will discuss how to display quantitative information more effectively tailored to these preferences.

Description: This paper presents a method that uses three-dimensional graphs to solve stationary population problems. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1981, Vol. 33.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a high level summary of the paper “Variance of the CTE Estimator” by B. John Manistre and Geoffrey H. Hancock that appeared in the North American Actuarial Journal in 2005. The authors also expanded on some of the results.

Description: A study of disability experience examines cost burden and degree of disability, and how these measures vary across different subpopulations.

Description: Commentary on practical observations resulting from constructing and running Economic Capital models. Possible standardization of assumptions and result interpretation are morphing even though use of E.C. models has now been around for years.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.