Description: The diary of Dirk Nieder, an actuary who traveled in Asia amid the COVID-19 pandemic, tying in what he saw in asia countries and developments from the west.

Description: Summary in Simplified Chinese

Description: This report provides highlights of a weekly survey of practices regarding the mitigation of the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S. during the week of November 28, 2020. The survey asks about the degree to which the respondents perceive that people in their community are following 21 common mitigation practices. The responses are separated by state and compared to state level statistics regarding the level of COVID-19 infections from the Johns Hopkins COVID database for the same time period.

Description: In this session we will discuss the impact of regulation changes that will allow members with End State Renal Disease (ESRD) to sign up for Medicare Advantage in 2021 for the first time. We will delve into the current basics of how ESRD works, the characteristics of the population that is currently on original medicare today, and a comprehensive look at what plan sponsors should be thinking about going into 2021.

Description: Presenters will address optimal new business written premium mix at the firm and state levels under varying competitive conditions. They will explore the use of mean-variance optimization to determine a company's optimal new business written premium mix for a given geographical area, predicting statewide product mixes using varying rate regulation scenarios, involving profit caps and measuring/testing a market's competitiveness for a given line of business. The scope of the ideas to be presented is international, applying to property, liability, individual and group life; individual and group health; disability and accidental insurance. Examples will be presented for general insurance in the United States

Description: The article provides insights about the need for revolutionary actuaries in Saudi Arabia due to the reform that is happening across the kingdom under all sectors. Then I talk briefly about the health sector and the transformation that is happing in the sector, and how qualified health actuaries can contribute to this health reform.

Description: Retirement market study of Brazil in Spanish.

Description: Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19.

Description: Read the June 2020 issue of Health Watch published by the Health Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Health claims are not normally distributed. Claims Forecasting can be improved by understanding the entire distribution of plausible values of future claims, for example knowing there is an 80% chance future claims are between $340 and $375 PMPM. Confidence intervals around our estimates allow us to understand for each range around the best estimate (for example +/- 1%) what is the probability that future claims will fall in that range. Quantile Regression is a mathematical technique where you can estimate any percentile of the claims distribution you are looking for as a function of demographics, diagnosis indicators, prior cost variables, or other significant predictors. You can see which coefficients are important at different parts of the distribution. Individual and group distributions can be constructed. There are numerous applications in pricing and underwriting, stop loss, provider profiling, ACO target setting, allocation of group risk charges based on volatility, discounting strategy, and experience analysis.