Description: This abstract describes a paper that discusses insurance claim forecasting using econometric stepwise regression to analyze historical data.

Description: Article Society Seminars by Adams in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: The Committee on Economic Statistics of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries has recommended that the Institute sponsor an Economic Forecasting Board composed of actuaries and economists. Its role would be to develop formal projections of interest rates, inflation rates, productivity and wages. This article discusses the role of such a board, the purposes for the projections, and the potential roadblocks to accomplishing this.

Description: Opinion article that explores the possibility of the actuarial profession producing its own Nate Silver, someone able to convert complicated actuarial concepts into meaningful and understandable public communications.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author discusses the advantages to management of preparing estimates of annual earnings early in the year, for planning and budgeting, deciding on changes to dividend scales, estimating earnings from interest, mortality, and expenses against expected, etc. The author lays out his method of forecasting based on gains and losses by source of earnings, using readily available data including various annual statement exhibits. The author notes that judgment is important as well as statistical analysis in making reasonable forecasts.

Description: Gives examples of the difference between actual data distribution of investment returns compared with lognormal assumptions.

Description: Appendix E is round 2 on comments on application of judgmental methods from the Delphi study. See the SOA Website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the variables.

Description: This study note was written to supplement the “Credibility” chapter of Foundations of Casualty Actuarial Science as a reading for the fourth CAS/SOA examination. It presents important topics not covered in the Foundations chapter including the Bühlmann-Straub Model and nonparametric and semiparametric estimation of credibility formula parameters.

Description: In this paper we shall present our results in terms of the estimation of human mortality rates, but the results carry over to other applications. We shall discuss a Bayesian model that encompasses both graduation [smoothing] and prediction.

Description: The next evolution of actuarial systems in the U.S. will likely be a move toward a single system solution. This article defines a single system solution and illustrates how models can be shared across actuarial functions, the potential benefits of a single system solution, and describes potential mitigation strategies to address typical actuarial concerns.