Description: This chapter focuses on creating practical models that aid in the prediction of the risk of readmission to a specific hospital within 30 days of discharge for Medicare patients, to aid in the identification and stratification of at-risk patients for hospitals considering building an intervention program in a cost-effective manner. For readers who wish to develop their own predictive model, a dataset is provided on the Actexmadriver.com website, and R code is provided in the appendix to this chapter.

Description: A review of the Bridging the Gap Series: Application of Predictive Modeling in VA/FIA Risk Management at the Equity Based Guarantees Conference in Chicago.

Description: A description of the Technology Section's goals and accomplishments.

Description: Can we improve upon traditional methods of risk measurement and risk selection? Panelists discuss potential applications of predictive modeling, including individual underwriting, group rating and provider reimbursement. They focus on ways in which predictive modeling can be used to improve risk selection, experience rating and provider reimbursement. A session at the Health/Pension Spring Meeting held in New Orleans, Louisiana June 15-17, 2005. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2.

Description: The guest editorial details some valuable lessons during the author’s career as an employee benefits (mostly retirement) consultant, turned P&C predictive modeling, reporting and data warehousing lead, turned an analytic strategist and independent consultant.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: This paper shows how discrete multivariate analysis or multidimensional contingency table methods may be applied to data arising in actuarial work. A brief introduction to the theory is followed by two detailed examples of its application. Finally, the concluding remarks indicate how the procedure could be incorporated into a complete rate-making procedure. This work was performed for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

Description: Presented at April 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about what analysis is effective in measuring recent medical care experience and are the projected cost-containment savings presented to plan sponsors being realized.

Description: This paper deals with how the credibility levels change based on this lack knowledge. Group insuraace models are used, bill some of tile techniques could apply to any insurance risk.