Description: This paper, originally published in 1992 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 44, deals with a topic that is becoming increasingly important to actuaries in most fields of practice. “Without relying on formulas, this paper presents the important concepts underlying the theory of arbitrage-free pricing of interest-rate-contingent cash flows.” This paper, by James A. Tilley, won the 1992-93 Annual Prize, and the Halmstad Prize for 1992. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of the discussions.

Description: Argues public plans should only hold bonds, on the basis of tax and finance arguments.

Description: Investment opportunities are driven by events in the economy and how participants in the financial markets react to those events. This keynote address will highlight current economic themes and their impact on investment opportunities.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: There have been continual advances in the modeling of financial series but most are aimed at the pricing of derivatives. Different criteria are needed for development of scenarios for risk management. Some recent methods will be reviewed with an eye on risk-management applications, including using the simulated method of moments to parameterize multifactor models, fractional differencing and other methods to model series with persistent autocorrelation, and models to flatten out the volatility smile, such as jump-diffusion models. These methods will be illustrated with applications to inflation, interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates.

Description: In this session, we will explore investment solutions that aim to maintain the long-term viability of a pension plan, with considerations on hedging interest rates, credit, inflation, longevity and other risks, while accounting for the many particularities associated with underlying liabilities and their corresponding ramifications.

Description: This session is about regulatory constraints and the role the NAIC is playing to help facilitate 24-hour programs, plan design issues, the use of managed care, coverage as part of a workers' compensation plan versus coverage of health care outside of the workers' compensation system. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 18, No. 4A.

Description: This session is about rationing health care. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 18, No. 4A.

Description: Discussion rebutting the Dec. 2004 issue of The Financial Reporter article titled, “On the Fair Value of Insurance Liabilities,” authored by Don Solow. That article expressed disagreement with the position of the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board to reflect the value of “own credit risk” in the fair valuation of insurance liabilities.

Description: Diverse Risks 2016 Call for Essays