Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: This paper explores deficiencies in our present health care system, and examines how they hinder the provision of optimal chronic illness care. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: Because of increasing longevity in the world's population, a larger proportion of people will live long enough to develop chronic diseases. Because of their large numbers and extent of their individual expenses, the public sector will need to intervene to help these patients and their families. From Financing Chronic Care Monograph, M-HB05-1.

Description: Essay stating accessibility, affordability and efficiency are the key to success in the future of healthcare.

Description: Evidence is building from the physical sciences that we are starting to reach some of earth’s limits. Unless we can find some technological solutions, once these limits are reached, we can expect to see a very changed world. Instead of having constantly increasing resources available to us, we can expect ever-decreasing resources to be available. Instead of seeing year after year of growth, increasing longevity and improving morbidity, we can expect the opposite.

Description: Could it be that the depth of our current crisis is related to our failure to find an economic goal other than continuous “growth” as it’s been measured for decades? As painful as it may be, we can view the current crisis as a wake-up call. Rather than trying desperately to restore a “healthy” economy, perhaps it’s time to try building a truly healthy economy – one where we don’t keep promoting consumption of any and all kinds at the expense of saving and investing for the future.

Description: Actuaries are increasingly being asked to incorporate Economic Scenario Generators into their work. Whether it be a Risk Neutral model for pricing or a Real-World version for Economic Capital modelling, using these tools can help produce a much more robust analysis. Unfortunately, these models and their underpinnings are also very complicated, which can lead to confusion. Come watch the presenters try to demystify some of this. In particular, they will address the following questions: • What is the difference between Real-World and Risk Neutral scenarios? • When should I use one or the other? • How are these models calibrated? • What are some of the misconceptions about these models? At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to: • Explain the difference between Real-World and a Risk Neutral scenarios • Understand the appropriate usage of both • Identify some of the calibration questions that go into developing an appropriate set of scenarios • Avoid some of the common misconceptions about these scenarios

Description: 2022 was a year of radical change for the annuity market as interest rates increased from historic lows. The rapid growth of RILA products stalled as FIA and MYGA products saw a significant increase in market share. The impacts of the higher rate environment are continuing to be realized in experience, in force management, product design and more. Learn more about the retail annuity market with a focus on the impacts of higher interest rates. Session materials will draw on experience studies, sales results, product changes, and more, which will examine how higher interest rates have altered the annuity market.At the conclusion of this session, you will understand recent trends in the annuity market, including emerging experience, inforce management actions, new product designs, and the impact of reinsurance.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report included a section of statistics that highlight the pandemic’s impact on economies in the U.S. and Canada. This report shows updates through July 29, 2020, to selected graphs from the Economic and Asset Impact section of the comprehensive report.

Description: This session series is sponsored by Hannover Re Session 1 - COVID-19: Past, Present and Future and Its Impact on Health Products COVID-19 has had an unprecedented impact on the health industry, forcing insurance companies and other risk-sharing entities to re-assess how to write and manage its business going forward. This first of two sessions in the special COVID-19 series will review the impact the pandemic has had on the development, pricing and risk management of health products. The speakers will review COVID-19 mortality and morbidity trends, share possible outlooks for the future of the virus, and analyze how COVID-19 has impacted the pricing strategies and risk management of health business across various markets (e.g., the ACA marketplace, Group Commercial and Medicare). By attending this session, you will be able to explain the latest COVID-19 trends in the US and globally and the resulting impact on mortality and morbidity experience. Attendees will develop a clearer understanding of how the pandemic has impacted the pricing and risk management of health products.