Description: This report reviews estimates of 2017 U.S. population mortality experience from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System.

Description: Mortality improvement rates for AG38 for 2017.

Description: CPT, NCCI, ICD, CCI, DRG, APC, PTP – understanding healthcare claims involve a dizzying array of code sets and payment methodologies, and yet the claim form is the intersection of health plan affordability, provider payment, and data analysis. This webcast will cover: • The code sets used in medical coding • Types of correct coding policies implemented by CMS and commercial payers • Payment integrity strategies to drive health plan affordability • Data analytics approaches leveraging medical coding knowledge

Description: Hear about modernized reporting capabilities and technical analysis, which is enabled through access to deep actuarial and financial planning data. The webcast will focus on a real post-Long Duration Targeted Improvements (LDTI) source of earnings analysis and on a high-level LDTI forecasting capability.

Description: Health care has changed rapidly over the past couple of years. The pandemic has shifted consumer behavior in how and where they receive health care as well as consumer attitudes toward health care. Payers continue to design innovative solutions in responses to their patient’s needs and expectations. These changes in consumer behaviors and the responses by payers are expected to impact both health care cost and utilization. Discuss changes in health care that have emerged due to the pandemic and how they are expected to influence actuarial assumptions. Explore epidemiological models commonly used in the industry, the considerations when using these models, as well as the challenges with regards to gathering and interpreting relevant experience data. By attending this session, you will be able to: Identify shifts in consumer behavior that have emerged from the pandemic and describe how payers are responding to new patient expectations. Discuss how these post-pandemic changes by consumers and payers influence medical spending. Determine which actuarial assumptions are impacted and how and if the impact is expected to be temporary or permanent. Discuss considerations taken by actuaries and challenges faced when modelling actuarial assumptions post pandemic.

Description: With mortality rates significantly higher in 2020 and 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, actuaries that rely on historical experience cannot properly craft assumptions about the future due to the recent excess deaths. This webcast focuses on the practicality of using pandemic mortality experience, as well as how to overcome the practical challenges of that data implementation. Explore an overview of different approaches used by institutions in the U.S., Canada and UK and an observation of industry survey responses. There will also be a comparison to recent SOA expert opinion surveys and short term impacts on the future of U.S. mortality.

Description: In late 2021, U.S. Congress passed the Consolidated Appropriations Act (CCA), which requires group health plans and health insurers to submit information regarding the costs of prescription drug costs and other health care services each year to the federal government. Learn how this data can be useful to anyone responsible for forecasting and budgeting.

Description: "Living to 100 in the time of COVID-19: A Study of Late –Life Mortality Trajectories, Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D., Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D., Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago Swedish Mortality Does Not Decelerate in Recent Cohorts, or Does it? – Roland Rau, Ph. D., Professor, University of Rostock & Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany; Marcus Ebeling, Ph.D., Karin Modig, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Anders Ahlbom, Ph.D., Professor Emeritus, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm Sweden; Kai Kaufhold, Aktuar DAV, Ad Res Advanced Reinsurance Services GmbH, Cologne, Germany; Annika Ziegler, Lukas Stake, Hochschule Koblenz & Ad Res, Germany"

Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: With the mandated health plan transparency files, health plans and providers are now able to substantially enhance their provider contracting efforts. Although the files are large and cumbersome they are market disruptors and provide new insights for provider contracting efforts. Explore a demonstration on the type of information now available and how it can be used to enhance this from both a health plan and health care provider perspective.