Description: The authors explore a new approach to the premium persistency assumption in universal life products.

Description: Article 1979 Research Conference by Klugman in The Actuary, December 1979, Volume 13, Number 10

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: Modeling experience sharing by David Yu who leads the retirement product and asset model development team within Prudential Financial

Description: This paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of underwriting cycles on an insurer’s surplus. The model allows the insurer to vary its security loading in response to the cycles, with a strategy parameter that indicates the extent to which the insurer follows the loading which prevails in the market. The insurer’s claim rate is also allowed to vary to reflect exposure changes that result from the insurer’s strategy. The paper analyzes ruin probabilities using both simulation and a Lundberg-type upper bound which is developed in the paper. It finds that the latter is suitable and convenient for comparing ruin probabilities under the different insurer strategies.

Description: This report provides estimated savings for several of the options that are available to plan sponsors after implementation of the Medicare prescription drug program.

Description: In this article, we are going to discuss the AR model by making connections to time-dependent ordinary differential equations.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: Discussion of Capital Market Modeling techniques