Description: Data used for HAT at 2020 PA 4.0 event.

Description: Reflection on three years on the PAF section council and where we're headed next.

Description: An introduction of predictive modeling techniques that are applicable to insurance industry, including generalized linear model (GLM) and classification and regression tree model(CART). Other models such as data clustering, neural network, and support vector machine (SVM), are also briefly discussed.

Description: This report provides actuaries and other professionals working with risk, data and analytics or program evaluation in the health care space with considerations and frameworks related to the use of determinants of health (DOH) in data and actuarial work streams. Such frameworks can leverage new data sources to enrich health care data analysis to move beyond traditional data elements, such as age, gender, zip code or health diagnosis.

Description: Much of the work performed by disability insurance actuaries depends on the availability of accurate and detailed data, which is not always as simple as it sounds. Explore a variety of data challenges faced by disability actuaries, along with potential solutions. Potential topics include finding relevant data, the impact of poor data on valuation work, the impact of new privacy rules, and the potential bias in the data used to develop predictive models.

Description: Internal modernization initiatives and external changes of the financial reporting regulations (e.g., LDTI, IFRS 17) increase the amount of validation activities for actuarial models. In addition, the use of predictive analytics in actuarial modeling requires a different set of validation skillsets/techniques in model validation. These internal and external forces call for a structured, streamlined and robust model validation practice.

Description: This article provides an overview of activities that should be considered by an actuary when validating a predictive model. It describes several components to consider when validating a predictive model and provides an examination of various methodologies that can be implemented in the validation process.

Description: "Risk adjustment (RA) is a key component for CMS Medicare Advantage program and California Medicaid Managed Care program. While both RA programs follow generally accepted basic principles at a high level, their underlying methodologies and assumptions are also quite different. Due to recent events such as COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and Medicaid redetermination delay and restart, it adds complexity to Risk Adjustment. This is a hot topic in the industry and has significant impact to health plans. Keeping current with risk adjustment program changes and understanding the commonalities and differences of these two government risk adjustment programs is important to our health actuaries. Compare these two risk adjustment programs so you can learn key elements of a risk adjustment program, similarities and differences in methodology and assumptions , as well as special considerations due to serving different populations."

Description: You’ve written the position papers, updated the models, and designed the required disclosures, but you may be wondering how to explain the results during interim financial reporting periods to company management as well as other stakeholders. This session will explore ways to adapt existing management reporting and offer ideas for new metrics. We will explore various methods for analyzing DAC amortization patterns, market risk benefit reserve patterns, and Liability for Future Benefits (LFPB) movements. In addition, this session will explore ways to integrate changes in LDTI with business planning and other broader business issues such as product pricing considerations and reinsurance strategy.