Description: A discussion on the starting point of building a predictive model.

Description: The author discusses the two-part presentation on complexity science tools at the SOA Annual Meeting October 2010. He explains that presentations went back to basics with explanations about the difference between modeling tools used to employ deterministic methods for classical actuarial models.

Description: Provides a simplified explanation of the modeling and statistical terms currently in use by the profession, and provides a list of publications worth reading in regards to complexity science plus a list of free software.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: The optional phase-in period for life principle-based reserves (PBR) has come to a close, and companies have put in the work to bring their PBR implementations across the finish line. With the mandatory PBR implementation deadline behind them, companies can turn their attention from compliance to model and process improvements. The presenters will outline lessons learned from PBR implementations and their applications to broader use cases, as well as resources that are available for PBR modelers. Discussion topics will include items such as: Model simplifications and validation Model run-time techniques Model scalability (e.g. adding new products / future assumption updates) Sensitivity testing Model projections Available PBR & other modeling resources (e.g. PBR practice note, ASOP 56)

Description: 1996 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this practitioners' forum the participants discussed interest rate scenarios that are used in cash-flow testing, what projection results you look at to determine whether you have a good result or a bad result, the concept of just what is reserve adequacy, and what does it mean to say that reserves are adequate.

Description: This paper investigates nonparametric estimators of the distribution function that are based on mixtures of gamma distributions when we have a random sample from a continuous distribution function. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This article discussed modeling the P&C reinsurance market using an Agent Based Model to provide insights into the market. The characteristics of this marketplace provide credibility to this type of modeling. Specifically, the P&C reinsurance market has few major players, very little product differentiation, and low barriers to entry. In addition established competitors are volume-constrained due to prior business and capacity decisions made based on estimated product costs and prices.

Description: Ever wanted to do a Kaggle data science competition, but didn't know where to start? This presentation meets the needs of actuaries interested in predictive analytics and competitive data science. The presentation will describe the nature of competitive data science, and provide insights into lessons learned by competing in the Airbus Ship Detection Challenge at Kaggle, as well as other Kaggle competitions. The presenters will provide an introduction to neural networks and describe the nature of the Airbus Ship Detection Challenge and other Kaggle competitions, plus a solution approaches that can be used to obtain top scores using Convolutional Neural networks (CNNs), random forests and boosted trees.

Description: As the use of predictive models and novel datasets becomes more prevalent, a focus on consumer protection is being highlighted by regulators, ethicists, and industry insiders. Over time, increased rigor should and will be applied in model development and implementation. These issues are not new. Hundreds of individuals have worked on these issues in the laboratory, the board room, and the court room. The Civil Rights Act of 1964, Uniform Guidelines of the US EEOC, the Principles for the Validation and Use of Personnel Selection and other sources are intended to protect the rights of citizens and consumers and provide guidance to professionals in the development and use of decision-making tools. Drawing heavily on examples and parallels from psychology and employment practices as well as other disciplines, concepts such as model bias, fairness, adverse impact, disparate treatment and the like will be presented. Suggestions to ensure model validity, demonstrate model and data relevancy and minimize the potential for adverse impact to protected classes will also be offered. Each of these considerations will be linked to recent dialogue and concerns in the Life Insurance sector.