Description: Mortality Model Selection and Combination in RAlternative approaches for selecting mortality models and forecasting mortality have been proposed. The usual practice is to base mortality forecasts on a single mortality model selected using in-sample goodness-of-fit measures. However, cross-validation and other alternative out-of-sample measures are increasingly being used in model selection, and model combination methods are becoming a common alternative to using a single mortality model. Such methods combine predictions from multiple mortality models to reduce model choice uncertainty and improve forecast accuracy. Explore techniques to select and combine mortality models using the freely available open source R package CoMoMo (https://github.com/kessysalvatory/CoMoMo), which extends the widely used R package StMoMo (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=StMoMo). We will use data for the USA and other countries to discuss and demonstrate four different model combination approaches including simple model averaging, Bayesian model averaging, model confidence set, and stacked regression ensembles.

Description: The hybrid Life/LTC and Life / Chronic Illness market is an exciting market that is in its relative infancy. There are many new companies that have just entered, or are considering entering, the hybrid market. Hybrid sales have grown tremendously over the past decade and are still going strong, with annual premium revenue estimated to be above $4 billion per year. The young issue ages for these products, relative to when LTC benefits are paid, means that the claim experience in the industry for these products is still very limited. Additionally, there are many moving parts to these products that present correlated risks and assumptions. The new entrants to the market, limited experience, and the interactions of risks create an environment equipped for vibrant discussions on the product structure, risks, assumptions, and considerations for modeling these hybrid products. The presenters would provide insight into each of these topics through a conceptual discussion, supported by observational data from case study projections and sensitivities.

Description: Provides a review of the available lapse experience for lapse-supported Life and Long-Term Care products.

Description: The Society of Actuaries' Long-Term Care Insurance Experience Committee is soliciting information on long-term care policies for both incidence lapse mortality and claim terminations from January 1, 2000 through December 31, 2011.

Description: General Session III – The Ageing Process: From New Technology to New Medicine

Description: "Driving Longevity Through Educational Attainment – Robert L. Brown – Ph. D. Higher Age U.S. Mortality By Education and Cause of Death Trends, Inequality and Controllable Risk Factors – Andrew J. G. Cairns – MPA Ph.D., Maxwell Institute for Mathematical Sciences, and Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics, Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK, Cristian Redondo Lour´es, Ph.D., Actuarial Solutions,"

Description: Some research implies that micro SDOH-related risk factors can influence a significant proportion of an individual's overall health outcome. Contained in SDOH are items such as mental health, ongoing social connection and interactions, transportation, financial confidence, and other items.

Description: Getting people to think beyond retirement about future care needs and how they will be paid for is critical for a healthy aging plan. However, most people avoid the topic and make rushed decisions when finding long-term care services. Hear from experts in this advisory field explain what a successful plan looks like and what it takes to get people to plan ahead.