Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 7D: Emerging Trends in Lapse and Mortality for Life Products 9.1.21 Recording

Description: The actuarial profession is changing rapidly and the skills needed to be successful are also changing. In this session, we will debate key topics and questions, such as: What is the predominant future career path for actuaries? Specialists or generalists? Does the actuarial profession have a meaningful value prop outside our core domains e.g. insurance? What skills are needed for the actuary of the future? What’s the best approach to improve actuarial storytelling to non-actuarial audiences? What’s the role of actuaries to managing and predicting emerging trends and assumptions? What is the role of actuaries in relation to development and ownership of advanced modeling? Is the future actuarial profession smaller/larger than it is today? In either case, how does it differ from today in terms of make-up, deployment, function, purpose, value add, etc.?

Description: Model design is an important part of being an actuary, and the SOA highlights the importance of the actuarial control cycle of model design, evaluation and monitoring. What tools are at our disposal for these steps? When should we be concerned or excited about model performance? Can we, and should we, use machine learning tools to assist with model improvement or development?

Description: As the speed of technological innovation increases, actuarial leaders are trying to determine how to use emerging technologies to unlock more business value and improve competitive positioning. This includes enabling new capabilities, improving process efficiency, and increasing the effectiveness of human capital. The session will discuss what we are hearing from clients who are in the process of transforming their business, how they are approaching these transformations, and what they are focusing on. This will include different aspects of transformation, including visualization dashboards, data science applications, no-code platforms, automation, data, and the cloud. Find out how organizations are thinking of human capital and collaboration between actuaries, IT, and other professionals.

Description: "Risk adjustment is an important aspect of establishing appropriate capitation rates. When a set of services is carved out for specific management under a sub-capitation, establishing appropriate adjustments for varying levels of underlying risk is more complicated. Dive into analytical and operational challenges and resolutions as presenters share more about developing a risk adjustment model specific to the carve-out of behavioral health services through a real-life case study. You will further explore a definition of the use case, availability of historical data sets, selection of the modeling approach, learnings from the iterative modeling process, and the potential application of the results. After attending this session, you will be able to: Understand why a behavioral health specific-risk adjustment model has business value Understand the unique challenges related to developing risk adjustment on member and cost subsegments Understand the impact of trade-offs between model complexity and interpretability in the context of implementation Increase awareness of data nuances and requirements unique to this type of project Describe analytic techniques that can be investigated for use in projects of similar business objectives"

Description: Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become a key component of the insurance landscape and getting full value from an AI depends on much more than simply building the model. Please join us to hear the challenges and potential solutions around successfully deploying an AI-driven initiative within an organization. Hear from panelists as they describe the human impacts of model implementation, how to assess a model for effectiveness and (lack of) bias, and detail the journey of implementing AI-driven underwriting models at a large insurance company.

Description: Internal modernization initiatives and external changes of the financial reporting regulations (e.g., LDTI, IFRS 17) increase the amount of validation activities for actuarial models. In addition, the use of predictive analytics in actuarial modeling requires a different set of validation skillsets/techniques in model validation. These internal and external forces call for a structured, streamlined and robust model validation practice.

Description: Term products exhibit a wide range of behavior as policyholders can elect different term periods and conversion options. While term products have been around for decades, it's only recently that longer level term products are reaching the end of the level term period. Term conversions have historically been an afterthought and are rarely modeled. Discuss the use of predictive modeling techniques such as LASSO regression and cross-validation to build models for level term lapses and post-level term shock lapses, as well as the extrapolation of experience for shorter term products to longer term products (e.g., extrapolating 20-year term experience and applying to 30-year term). Explore the use of traditional techniques to develop term conversion rates and a framework for modeling the assumption. Challenges and limitations of setting lapse and conversion rates will be discussed. By attending the session, you will: - Understand the complexities of term policyholder behavior. - Understand the challenges in developing and implementing assumptions for lapses and conversions. - Understand the application of traditional and predictive modeling techniques for term policyholder behavior.

Description: "Modern actuarial work, being quite data intensive, provides many opportunities for actuaries to use the statistical skills that are part of their basic training. Furthermore, modern computing allows us to analyze vast quantities of data intensively and each package will provide statistical answersto any questions the actuary might ask of it. However, in this particular field, it is often worth taking a step back, and ensuring that we recall and consider the warnings that come with each of the statistical procedures we might attempt to use. This will allow us to ensure that we guard ourselves against drawing inappropriate conclusions, which could come back to haunt us later. By attending the session, you will: - Avoid drawing inappropriate statistical conclusions, while doing their work. - Leave informed about the types of pitfalls that exist and where those might come into play in actuarial work."

Description: Highlight the importance of assigning granular policyholder behavior assumptions to cohorts of a block that behave differently for universal life products. The case study assumption testing will focus on potential cash flow impacts of surrender, lapse and premium persistency behavior— individually and combined. The case study will be based on testing data related to typical demographics for a ULSG product and not on any specific company data.