Description: Article reviews the data a year into the unwinding of continuous coverage provisions in Medicaid, the impact on enrollment counts, how capitation rates have been adjusted, and compares those results to what has been modeled with the SOA Mediciad Unwinding model.

Description: Medical Insurance in Latin America: Lessons Learned. Issue No. 42.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.

Description: Traditional risk scoring models include only fixed (non-random) demographic and condition-based variables. By including the provider effect as part of the risk scoring model as a random effect, we can get better estimates of provider performance (incorporating practice patterns conditional on patient morbidity profile). This approach can be generalized to study other factors that are now masked in error variance (i.e. area, Social Determinants) but if modeled could give us better estimates of risk

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Telehealth benefits, obstacles, and delivery systems

Description: Disruptive changes will create opportunities for health actuaries as we help health plans develop their overall strategy.

Description: This article discusses the court cases dealing with the severability of the individual mandate from the Affordable Care Act. Severability is related to essentiality, and actuarial input was relied upon to determine essentiality. The article concludes with lessons that actuaries should learn from the legal proceedings.

Description: Thank you to the contributors and those who helped. Brief description of the articles in the issue.

Description: In preparing claims reserves in the annual statement, health insurers and their opining actuaries will generally include a provision for adverse deviation (PAD) in their reserved amount in order to satisfy language in both in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Health Annual Statement Instructions and in Actuarial Standards of Practice. This article explores the total level of PAD (both implicit and explicit margin combined) included in the reported claims reserves by examining NAIC filing data from 2016 through 2022.