Description: The author discusses the two-part presentation on complexity science tools at the SOA Annual Meeting October 2010. He explains that presentations went back to basics with explanations about the difference between modeling tools used to employ deterministic methods for classical actuarial models.

Description: The author explains how he used judgmental forecasting techniques to develop a dynamic lapse assumption. He defines the techniques and provides readers with a step-by-step process.

Description: Chairperson's column for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism.

Description: Chairperson's column for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism.

Description: Read the June issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: This article explores the use of Generalized Additive Models and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines to model nonlinear relationships in a linear response model. These models use supervised methods to determine the optimal shape of the predictors in the model. Users are provided an example use case so that they may get started right away building models to explore complex relationships in new ways.

Description: Given the limits of classical actuarial modeling and forecasting techniques, this newsletter contains articles discussing several ways to supplement your toolset.

Description: Feature article discussing the usefulness of Lorenz and Lift curves.

Description: Machine learning models are not black-boxes; these models can easily be interpreted using tools like SHAP, LIME and Anchor. These tools can facilitate the understanding of the model and the business problem. We can used these tools to build better models and communicate how predictions are generated. This article demonstrates their use in a mortality model.

Description: High level overview on how to implement a risk adjustment chart chase program.