Description: This 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference develops a stochastic generator for the generation of scenarios of the S&P 500 index, dividend yield, consumer price index, and U.S. Treasury yields. The authors first create a set of 'stylized facts' for these series. They estimate statistical models for these series. These in-sample statistical models are themselves not suitable for generation of scenarios for decision making, but instead are additional 'stylized facts' that assist in model development. The 'best' statistical model according to standard statistical model selection criteria can easily lead to a model that is highly unsuitable for generation of scenarios for decision making. The authors develop a stochastic generator that is suitable for decision making under uncertainty.

Description: This article investigates the properties of the Gompertz distribution function. Explicit formulas for continuous life insurances and annuities are given in terms of the left-truncated gamma function. Moreover, approximations for the mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis of the Gompertz distribution are also given. Finally, the article shows that using a Gompertz assumption at fractional ages produces better a approximation than the usual UDD assumption.

Description: The standard deviation of the present value of benefits of portfolios of identical insurance contracts are examined when both the mortality and the force of interest are stochastic. Several models for the force of interest are presented. The impact of the different stochastic models for the force of interest and of different parameters on the mortality risk and the interest risk is investigated. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper attempts to quantify the benefits to the purchaser of a non-qualified variable annuity as compared to an investment in a mutual fund. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper suggests a new model for the distribution of deaths between two adjacent integral ages which addresses existing discontinuities. Application of the model is shown and compared with the existing three popular models. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 2.

Description: This paper discusses Cecil Nesbitt's paper on elementary models of the reserve fund for OASDI in the United States. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, Vol.1.

Description: The differences between select and ultimate insurance mortality are usually explained in terms of: 1. deterioration of a person's physical condition which occurs due to aging, and 2. anti-selection which occurs as some policyholders allow their coverage to lapse [i.e., those policyholders who find their health has become poor keep their coverage, while those who remain healthy discontinue their insurance]. This paper explores the differences in mortality between companies related to the differences in lapse rates of the companies.

Description: Six methods are presented for calculating the probability of ultimate ruin where the waiting times between claims are independent and identically distributed. Three of the six use Monte Carlo techniques. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1

Description: This paper examines a differential equation model, whose solutions have yield curve shapes. The paper also examines the relevance of the model with historical monthly U. S. Treasury nominal rates. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992 Vol. 1 .

Description: The analytical laws of mortality such as Gompertz and Makeham are often used by actuaries to describe the survival distributions. Numerical approaches to evaluate features such as mean and variance of these distributions may be very difficult not to mention the characteristics of their life contingent functions.