Description: Actuarial concepts of credibility can be extended to encompass additional information provided by new machine learning estimates. New statistical ideas also indicate how to generalize to blend arbitrarily many estimators, while not double-counting common information. For example, historical claim costs and risk scores both leverage diagnosis code information. We introduce two new estimators, one based on partial correlation and the other based on the machine learning-derived Shapley statistic, to address these limitations.

Description: The Possible Role of Convolutional Neural Networks in Mortality Risk Protection

Description: This article discusses techniques used to create risk scores to help determine appropriate primary care panel sizes for a provider organization.

Description: December 2013 issue of Forecasting & Futurism newsletter

Description: The article gives a brief history of the development of the Delphi method, and describes the use of the Delphi method in studies by the Society of Actuaries over the past 25 years.

Description: Read the April 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section of the Society of Actuaries.

Description: September 2009 issue of the Forecasting & Futurism Section newsletter

Description: July 2010 issue of the Forecasting & Futurism Section newsletter, Forecasting & Futurism Newsletter.

Description: Full issue of Predicative Analytics and Futurism Section, Issue 17, April 2018

Description: Read the June 2017 issue of Predictive Analytics and Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section.