Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: "Examine the impact of traditional deductibles on health care equity and the need for innovative plan designs. You will learn about the limitations of consumer-driven health care costs broadly today, as well as alternative cost-sharing approaches that have been successful in driving consumerism without exposing members to high costs. By attending the session, you will be able to: Have a clearer understanding of the issues surrounding deductibles Be equipped with practical ideas for creating more equitable and effective cost-sharing solutions Assess the feasibility and potential impact of implementing these solutions for your own organization"

Description: A divisive confrontation over health care pricing is almost inevitable over the next few years. What will ultimately happen is a political decision, not an actuarial one—but it will have major consequences for the trend in health care costs and the divergence between public and private insurance premiums.

Description: "Hear an overview of recent results and potential scenarios that may impact the future of the ACA market. Review recent reported industry level profitability before transitioning to a discussion of how current market dynamics may influence the future profitability of this segment. Results from microsimulation economic models will be presented to help illuminate market shifts. Issues that will be explored include how ICRA availability might influence individual decision making, as well as how a move to level funding is impacting the small group market. By attending this session, you will: Understand the recent average and variation of industry performance in the ACA market segment. Describe current policy and market forces that are expected to impact this segment. Explain the range of market scenarios that may result due to these forces."

Description: In this report, we explore the impact of clustering using the Medical Expenditure Panel Study (MEPS) data for children (aged 5 to 17) to build a bridge between oral health and overall health using dental and medical expenditures. We include social determinants of health as cluster input variables using the Partitioning around Medoids (PAM) method to identify children and their families who could potentially benefit from population health management related to oral health.

Description: "Direct medical costs for cancer care topped $209 billion nationally in 2020, accounting for a significant proportion of all health care expenditures in the U.S. Indirect costs are also significant, encompassing loss of productivity, wages, leisure time and decreased quality of life. The way cancer programs deliver and are reimbursed for care is rapidly changing. As the cost of cancer care continues to rise, several new value-based care programs - both public and private - have attempted to curb these rising costs. Learn about the current landscape of VBC oncology programs, several key challenges and opportunities with oncology analytics, as well as anticipated evolution of cancer care in the near future. Topics include: Current VBC oncology landscape, including a more detailed discussion on CMS' latest oncology program, Enhancing Oncology Model (EOM) Discussion on current challenges and opportunities with oncology analytics, including some advanced methodologies that have been developed based on documented clinical pathways to better understand cost drivers Future state of oncology care including emerging pharmaceuticals and novel therapies, personalized care regimens, and other clinical innovations"

Description: "Are you a health actuary affected by recent developments in business practices and accounting standards that have created situations in which you may be involved in estimating balances under accounting rules that differ from those typically used by insurers? In this session you will learn about situations where non-insurance accounting regimes may intersect actuarial practice, with an intended focus on two particular topics. One topic is general accepted accounting principles (GAAP) for insurance brokers under ASC 606 (Revenue Recognition) for commissions on Medicare Advantage and Medicare Supplement contracts, where the broker may get to recognize the expected value of all future commissions on a contract as revenue when the contract is placed. The other topic is GAAP under ASC 460 (Guarantees) in situations where a non-provider entity is bearing risk related to health care services, which can occur under the CMS Direct Contracting/ACO REACH model or under private sector care coordination contracts."

Description: Health care cost trends are a key ingredient that health care actuaries use in their practice. In collaboration with the Health Care Cost Institute (HCCI), the Society of Actuaries has put together a data extract for practicing health actuaries to be able to better understand historical trends and cost disruptors.

Description: Actuaries historically modeled new launches in pharmaceuticals by anticipating the expected change to the market basket. This became more complicated with the recent launches of gene and cell therapies as they address rare diseases. Rare conditions have low total member volume to study and some do not currently have a diagnosis code to identify them within claims data. Addressing this modeling challenge has been growing more important in the recent years with the number of therapies launching. What has the health care industry, and more specifically health care, done to enhance modeling and how should this be altered for the future? Additionally, historic modeling has sometimes incorporated a level of direct medical treatment cost offsets where studies have shown lower treatment costs are achievable. Can gene and cell financial modeling include cost offsets as well? And if so, what are suggested precautions or limitations to this effort?

Description: This article provides a summary of selected sessions of the October 2010 NAIC meeting.