Description: By necessity, attributions of financial processes require approximations. Tools used for approximations include Aumann-Shapley, time step, step-through, average step-through, partial derivative, and average partial derivative. Significantly non-linear paths can cause problems during attribution. Time (theta) and market factors must be handled concurrently. Typically contractual factors can be handled separately. Average Step-Through, Aumann-Shapley and Aumann-Shapley-3 points perform the best given the same time period. Attribution should be done with fairly small time steps as opposed to using a lot of points in the Aumann-Shapley calculation, but using Aumann-Shapley-3 points as a last step has some advantages.

Description: This article discusses asset-liability management from two different paradigms, one a simulation of the firm as an external observer e.g. shareholder would view it, and the other a “still life” at a given moment from an internal viewpoint.

Description: The author refers to a separate article in this edition of Risks and Rewards, in which Babbel, Gold and Merrill provide an excellent exposition of three approaches to present-valuing a series of risky cash flows and provide several insights into the way modern finance theory deals with risk. The purpose of this article is to bring these insights to the world of insurance risks and view them in relation to existing actuarial techniques. The author also discusses direct discounting and the actuarial appraisal method and their consistency.

Description: A discussion of methods used to determine the liability of segregated fund or separate account investment guarantees.

Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: The article focuses on the need to develop a strategy for investing surplus resulting from the buildup of significant excess capital. The author discusses three principles on which a company can base its surplus investment strategy, including the risk/return preference of the client, attribution of surplus to the products and an investment strategy based on all company risks.

Description: In 2003, the American Academy of Actuaries Life Capital Adequacy Subcommittee LCAS published a set of 10,000 stochastic scenarios that was intended to be used to support the publication, “Recommended Approach for Setting Regulatory Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Variable Products with Guarantees Excluding Index Guarantees.” The primary purpose of this article is to illustrate statistical measures that can be used to evaluate stochastic simulations.

Description: Discussion of significant anomalies in option pricing due to the independent identically distributed assumption of the Black Scholes formula.

Description: This article uses the example of a bullet or general account GIC to determine the fair value of liabilities.

Description: This article discusses the recent low interest rate environment and the asset-liability management challenges it presents for insurers. With respect to products such as deferred annuities, universal life and settlement options, it introduces the more robust duration measure called effective duration, which is the product of option-adjusted analysis OAA.