Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Concurrent Session 2A: Drivers of Future Mortality for the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: The recent release of the RP-2014 Mortality Table and Scale MP-2014 exposure drafts represent the SOA’s first comprehensive reexamination of U.S. pension-related mortality assumptions in over a decade. This paper summarizes the key conclusions reached in those exposure drafts and the estimated financial impact of adopting the new mortality assumptions.

Description: This article examines the impact of a changing smoking rate on population-level mortality improvement and the importance of taking this driver into account.

Description: Effective risk management of a portfolio demands accurate and succinct models which explain the main risk factors. We look at the various requirements we demand of a model, and find that they can all be met with an import from medical statistics: survival models.

Description: The most recent demographic data published in Mexico allows us to analyse in detail the profound demographic transition that has been taking place in the country for more than four decades. It is possible to develop forecasts for the future on the basis of this historic experience. The purpose of this article is not only to illustrate the profound demographic change in Mexico – and what it is expected to experience over the coming decades – but to highlight the challenges for the insurance industry posed by the various demographic trends. Wherever challenges are found, however, opportunities also exist, provided the industry succeeds in adequately transforming its own processes and meeting the needs of a changing market.

Description: This SOA report provides an overview and analysis of the mortality models, theories and trends contained in the papers presented at the past four international Living to 100 symposia.

Description: The is the informal discussion transcript from Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: Mortality in the U.S. states at ages 80 and older and over years 1959–2011 analyzed and compared with mortality levels in 13 high-longevity countries.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Pension Section has completed a research effort exploring the value of longevity pooling and its implications.