Description: In a series papers by Willmot and Lin, both exponential and non-exponential bounds for the tail probability of various compound distributions have been derived. In Wilmot, it was suggested that non-exponential bounds for the ruin probability were difficult to obtain using martingale arguments. In this note, we show how to use martingale inequalities to obtain some upper bounds for the ruin probability.

Description: We propose asymptotically correct two-sided bounds for random sums where the number of summands has an arbitrary distribution which can be viewed as ruin probabilities or accumulated claim sizes in various risk processes. The bounds are fairly new and they reveal the real accuracy of some well-known and widely used asymptotic formulas. It turns out that this accuracy can be poor and the range where these formulas give appropriate approximations depends on the shape of the tail distribution of the summands. This dependence is examined in the research.

Description: We apply decision theory to develop a credibility formula that minimizes a loss function that is a linear combination of a squared-error term and a second-derivative term. The squared-error term measures the accuracy of the estimator, while the second-derivative term constrains the estimator to be close to linear.

Description: Presents a way to study C-1 risk 'default risk' for fixed-income assets in the context of asset/liability management. This approach utilizes cash flow projections and Monte Carlo sampling.

Description: Case Study is used to see how effectively an approach based on combining products can reduce C-3 'interest rate' risk.

Description: This paper discusses the actuarial risk measures and uses a variety of estimation techniques such as nonparametric approach, parametric methods and robust procedures. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference, Iowa City, Iowa, August 5-7, 2004.

Description: 1993 SOA Annual Meeting, New York. Insurance regulators commissioned a task force to develop cash-flow variability measurement standards. This session presented the recommendations of that task force and the relationship to cash-flow testing. Topics included: 1. The regulatory need and how the process was approached. 2. The types of CMO variability that the standards attempt to address. 3. A description of the scenario selection process that's used in this model. 4. The prepayment assumptions and the method to be used to collect prepayment data. 5. The relationship to cash-flow testing. 6. The regulators' reactions.

Description: In this paper a C-1 bond risk analysis is used as an example in a presentation of a generalized approach to solvency risk quantification. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper develops a method for estimating the future claim costs of known ongoing large medical claims. It applies Least Squares analysis of historical experience to derive two arrays of factors. One array is to be applied as a vector inner product with claim costs already incurred and/or paid to project a total future claim cost. The second array distributes the total future claim cost over the months following the analysis date.

Description: In this paper we discuss some properties of the nth stop-loss order and their application in risk premium principles. We give a necessary condition and a sufficient condition for nth stop-loss orders. They are convenient tools to construct risk pairs with nth stop-loss orders. We show that exponential premium principles can diferentiate between losses more finely than the net premium principles under some conditions.