Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns

Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: This article illustrates how today’s retirement system tools have potential to achieve financially secure retirement and lists options for system improvement.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Simulation of Long-Term Stock Returns: Fat-Tails and Mean Reversion

Description: This paper advocates asset/liability management for pension plans. It identifies the economic factors that influence the economic value of liabilities and discusses the typical asset portfolio that results.

Description: In light of the increased frequency of the Black Swan stock market events, how should individuals and couples plan for retirement and try to manage the risks involved once retired? Specifically, how much of their retirement assets should they invest in risky rather than less risky assets?

Description: Investment Fallacies: Bitcoin Fallacies