Description: This document is an an address presented by the Honorable Dr. Henry Wallich at the April 1976 Washington D.C. meeting on the topic of how to protect savings during a time of inflation.

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.

Description: This paper uses the ideal quasi-natural experiment of government-subsidized agricultural insurance program phased out in different regions of China since 2007 to study the effects and transmission mechanisms of the program on alleviating regional poverty using a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. Specifically, this paper identifies the causal effects on the incidence, depth and intensity of poverty among rural residents. The research has important policy implications. First, this paper uses the program as a case to provide a research paradigm to estimate effects of implementing policy instruments that combine markets and government mandates. Second, as common prosperity is now a government imperative, the research also provides insights into ways insurance can be used to hedge income risks, alleviate poverty and help achieve more equitable distribution. The paper has been published on WeChat account of Chinese Association of Actuaries on February 9, 2022. The full version has been published in CSSCI journal Insurance Research, issue 11, 2021.

Description: The United States has received severe negative press the last several years regarding its massive U.S. federal government debt, currently estimated as of April 2007 at about $8.9 trillion. This article looks at the U.S. debt relative to other countries and also explores the impact on U.S. investments.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Boston Meeting describes the expansion and consolidation of the U.S., Canadian and Mexican life insurance industries and the discusses the top players in the insurance industry in the world and their market share. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 4b.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA New Orleans Meeting reviews trends in savings products including the Index Annuity, the CD annuity, variable life, variable annuities, modified endowment contracts - MEC and shifts in the banking industry. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 1.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Boston Meeting covers the key drivers of profitability and measuring performance and profitability of the agency distribution business, particularly the captive agency channel. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 4a.

Description: Interest rates steadily declining ever since the Volcker Fed tackled inflation in the early eighties. Ten years of stimulating monetary policy brought new lows. We should have braced ourselves for a return to neutrality, but that concept remains elusive. We will explore structural issues that have brought rates to these low levels and the potential impacts on the insurance business.

Description: Article from The Actuary, April 1985, Volume 20, No. 4 that discusses from usury to interest. Usury definitions are 1 The lending out of money with an interest charge for its use: the taking or practice of taking interest 2 An unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest, specifically interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money. Between definitions 1 and 2 are 2000 years of Western history, beginning with Biblical strictures against charging any interest and reaching today's sophisticated credit economy, in which interest, per se, is accepted and only excessive interest is illegal.