Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. This paper discusses the reserving of claims when there are negative values in the runoff triangle. It uses the Bayesian analysis method using the three-parameter log-normal distribution.

Description: This is a presentation from 43rd Actuarial Research Conference ARC, Regina, August 14–16, 2008. This talk will present the moment generating function of the discounted compound Poisson aggregate sums when the deflated claims are PH distributed and moment generating function of the discounted compound renewal sums.

Description: This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [NSERC] Discovery Grant 36860–06. Loss reserving is one of the most challenging tasks facing actuaries. Numerous approaches have been developed to give reasonable estimates. Generalized linear models [GLMs] are becoming quickly popular statistical analysis methods to estimate loss reserves. However, most of these models are aggregate reserving methods based on loss development triangles, without using information with regard to the actual claims processes. This paper establishes a more sophisticated structural reserving method incorporating more detailed information, such as the premium exposure emergence pattern, the loss emergence pattern and the loss development pattern, within the framework of GLMs.

Description: Three papers use sophisticated actuarial methods to develop a straightforward retirement income strategy that can be implemented in virtually any IRA or 401(k).

Description: The author encourages the use of sound actuarial principles to develop reasonable retirement spending budgets instead of rule of thumb approaches commonly used.

Description: ETFs have seen explosive growth in the past decade. Due to its flexibility and embedded risk management features, insurance companies and pension funds, are showing increasing interest in this asset class. This session covers an introduction to ETFs and the risk/rewards for insurance companies and pension funds as an additional asset class.

Description: In this Chapter we present a novel way for estimating aggregated EC figures based on Bayesian copula estimation. Contrary to the classic approach of using a single inter-risk- correlation matrix we derive a probability distribution of possible correlation matrices that enables us to tackle the important issue of parameter uncertainty. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Chairperson’s column discussing the state of the world today and how that influences investment strategies and describes to seminars the section sponsored to keep members apprised of changes.

Description: Is Risk/Return a sound tool for decision-making? No. It is not consistent, not objective, distorts decision and degrades governance. Why? What shall we do then?

Description: We consider a class of compound renewal risk process with claim waiting times have a discrete Km distribution. The classical compound binomial risk model is a special case when m = 1. Both recursive and explicit formulas are derived for the expected discounted penalty function due at ruin, for the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin. Many ruin related quantities can be analyzed through the penalty function, e.g., ruin probability, the p.g.f. of the time of ruin, joint and marginal distributions of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at ruin, claim causing ruin, as well as their moments. Detailed discussions are given in two special cases: claim sizes are rationally distributed, or the claim sizes distribution have a finite support.