Description: The primary focus of this 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference is the adaptation of the representative scenario method such that the distribution of the primary rates used for product pricing, are consistent, regardless of the initial random number seed. A preliminary question is how many stochastically generated scenarios are required for consistency. This presentation looks at the implications of: the use of antithetic random normal deviates upon the scenario process, ways of modifying the candidate list, and the choice function within the representative scenario process.

Description: This paper focuses on the situation of women at high ages and the implications of longer life for women. This paper draws on and brings together work done by the Society of Actuaries in connection with the 2005 post-retirement risk survey, work from Social Security administration studies, U.S. government census data, WISER, the MetLife Mature Market Institute and papers funded by the Social Security research center.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates the effect of ambiguity on the market for insurance when preferences are ordered by comparison of Choquet expected utilities.

Description: 1994 SOA Spring Meeting, Orlando. This session focused on the possible impacts of a return to higher interest rates and explored risk management strategies that may be appropriate.

Description: Article provides an excellent summary of the importance of mathematics, computer models for determining the future for human-based financial security models, and the importance of recognizing how human behavior effects the financial security program.

Description: This article provides a retrospective on investment risk management while highlighting actuarial tools used by portfolio risk managers.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: This article is the second installment in a three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I was published in the November 2019 issue. Part II addresses critical considerations in selecting, building, using, and validating ESGs. The article discusses key criteria in understanding ESGs including: - Risk factors - Scenario type - Process and parameterization - Calibration - Number of scenarios - Timing considerations

Description: This article discusses equity risk premium, what it is, how it should be measured, if a constant risk premium provides the best model and what are reasonable expectations for the future.