Description: This article explains why stochastic modeling is becoming more pervasive, and describes a specific stochastic application with metrics to measure results.

Description: From a session at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Diego, CA, June 22-23, 2000 A discussion of how stochastic modeling techniques can be used to efficiently and effectively consider a wide variety of scenarios and outcomes and how these tools can be used to optimize portfolio performance?

Description: The author recommends the use of "minimally destructive scenarios" as part of an ORSA process, in order to deal with cognitive bias that can occur in risk decision-making. Part of the essay collection "Risk Metrics for Decision Making and ORSA"

Description: A presentation at the Actuarial Research Conference in August 2006 in Montreal. This paper discusses the Basel VaR Value at Risk test of a bank's VaR model. It proposes an alternative, Quality Control of Risk Measures QCRM Hypothesis test. The alternative is more likely to reject an incorrect VaR model.

Description: This paper uses a mortality surge model to estimate the total financial impact on the U.S. insurance industry of a flu pandemic. It does not attempt to determine the probability of such a pandemic.

Description: It is well-known that reinsurance can be an effective risk management technique for an insurer. An appropriate use of reinsurance reduces the adverse risk exposure of an insurer and improves the overall viability of the underlying business. The use of reinsurance, on the other hand, incurs additional cost to the insurer in the form of reinsurance premium. This implies that an insurer is faced with a classic tradeoff between risk spreading and risk retaining. The thrust of my research is to propose some reinsurance designs that are optimal from the perspective of an insurer. This presentation describes an empirical approach to optimal reinsurance designs. This new method has the advantage that it does not need to make any explicit assumptions on the distribution of the underling risk. More importantly, it provides a simple and yet practical way of obtaining solution on a wide range of optimal reinsurance models.

Description: This report reviews the academic literature on risk aggregation and diversification as well as the regulatory approaches. We will point out the advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches with a focus on model risk issues.

Description: This paper outlines a method of parametric modeling that may be used to produce forecasts and forecast intervals that will convey a measure of the reliance that may be placed on the forecasts. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: From a session at the Spring meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Antonio, Texas, June 14-15, 2004 This session discusses emerging capital and reserve requirements on Variable annuities with guaranteed benefits and the effect that hedging/capital management strategies can have.

Description: This paper explores the principles upon which experience-rated group insurance currently is based and discusses the question of whether or not these principles are sound. Followed by discussion papers submitted by several authors