Description: Feature article discussing numerical short cuts, rules of thumb, estimators, modeling tips, etc. The featured problem is fitting the intermediate points for a real-world stochastic model of interest rates.

Description: This paper is Part 1 of a two-part submission. Part 2, “An Alternative Approach to Capital Allocation,” discusses using risk-replicating techniques that directly calculate the cost of capital. Such techniques can be used as a substitute for capital allocation. This paper expands upon current capital analysis by introducing a practical approach that considers the objectives of all stakeholders of an insurance company in setting appropriate capital targets.

Description: We consider Libor market model and calibration process. We estimate some interest rate derivatives such as Caps and Swaptions. We use Monte Carlo methods with appropriate dynamics under spot measure and forward measure. Imposing martingale discretization property, the same quantities are estimated again to see a contrast or discrepancy in light of confidence interval. Based on algorithms discussed in the paper, “Arbitrage-free discretizations of lognormal forward Libor and swap rate models” by Glasserman, P and Zhao, X 2000, the algorithms are implemented in excel VBA. Starting with current market data such as FRAs and Bond Prices, we describe steps involved to estimate the price of interest rate derivatives such as Caps and Swaptions, which would be beneficial to the practitioners in the industry.

Description: This is a presentation from 43rd Actuarial Research Conference ARC, Regina, August 14–16, 2008. This talk will present the moment generating function of the discounted compound Poisson aggregate sums when the deflated claims are PH distributed and moment generating function of the discounted compound renewal sums.

Description: This research was funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [NSERC] Discovery Grant 36860–06. Loss reserving is one of the most challenging tasks facing actuaries. Numerous approaches have been developed to give reasonable estimates. Generalized linear models [GLMs] are becoming quickly popular statistical analysis methods to estimate loss reserves. However, most of these models are aggregate reserving methods based on loss development triangles, without using information with regard to the actual claims processes. This paper establishes a more sophisticated structural reserving method incorporating more detailed information, such as the premium exposure emergence pattern, the loss emergence pattern and the loss development pattern, within the framework of GLMs.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that presents preliminary observations with respect to probabilistic fuzzy systems.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for calculating special contingency reserves for investment losses. The method is derived by first building a stochastic investment model and then utilizing its probabilistic structure. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1980, Vol. 32.

Description: This is a summary of the presentation given during the ARC Conference. Its purpose was to give a brief introduction to subexponential behavior and to show that the family of subexponential distributions provides ideal characteristics to model insurance risks. Although the literature related to this topic accumulated quickly during the last years, a textbook explaining the applications of extreme value theory with intuition as well as insight was still to be written. Embrechts et al, {I 997} satisfies this need and most of the results presented here can be found in this new classic in the actuarial literature.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Boston Meeting covers a general overview of basic interest rate models, the meaning of an arbitrage free model, the considerations in choosing an appropriate interest rate scenario generator, the uses, alternative approaches, the double mean reverting process model - DMRP, and how good the results are in terms of historical rates. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 4b.

Description: This article describes the key elements of a review of an economic scenario generator (ESG), including scoping, parameters, models, and model efficiency.