Description: This study was sponsored by the Society of Actuaries Health Section. This paper explores the relative significance of aging as a determinant of financial cost of health care beyond age 50, with particular attention to the effect for ages 65 and older. The paper presents concepts of aging factors and aging curves, which define relative values between ages for utilization or cost of health care services. General conclusions are drawn from Medicare data that utilization and cost differ by age, but that aging factors vary across services and may be less significant at very old ages. The author then turns to the question of measuring the significance of an aging curve assumption and what accuracy is lost in the simpler alternative of a single value across an age range.

Description: In this article, we will describe EY’s five-pillar approach that balances practicality with comprehensiveness, and how this applies to LTC model validation.

Description: This article provides a detailed description of the unbalanced subsidy provisions in the Affordable Care Act with easy to follow numerical illustrations. An understanding of the illustrative calculations is necessary to understand the subsidy implications. The article highlights some surprising and likely unintended results that will be interest to issuers, employers, consumers, regulators and policymakers. Actuaries can add expertise to their clients and to the public discussion with a proper understanding of the subsidy calculations and the resulting implications.

Description: The actuarial committee that authored this report developed a model to estimate the revenue the tax would generate. The results point out key considerations for an excise tax on high cost health plans, including the wide range of results generated by sensitivity to certain assumptions.

Description: Discussion of some of the debated aspects of the new health care law from an actuarial principles perspective.

Description: The paper focuses on value creation for European health insurance companies through the practical application of integrated ERM frameworks.

Description: This article deeply examines Pay-for-performance and presents curious findings through the lens of unwarranted variation. From Heath Watch Newsletter, May 2006, Issue No. 52.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: A Regulatory Perspective on Rate Review Before and After the Affordable Care Act

Description: Disease Management and the impact of overlap, co-morbidity on determining cost savings and employer buy-in. Issue No. 37.