Description: The presenters will share information about: -Insights into causes of death through the use of predictive models, based on a reinsured U.S. life portfolio, using logistic regression models to understand three main causes of death: cancer, heart and external causes; -Opioid abuse is a widespread phenomenon with drug-related mortality rates rising steeply in the U.S. over the past two decades. But what does the most recent data tell U.S. about the outlook for Opioid-related mortality?; -'Deaths of despair' have been publicized as a cause for the poor performance of U.S. mortality in recent years. The presenters will be looking at the different causes under this label, their evolution and explore the drivers behind them.

Description: This is the strong message to encourage all actuaries in the world, who are struggling against low/zero/negative interest rate. Japanese actuaries have been struggling with low/zero/negative interest rate since 1995. There are experiences in asset management, product revision, pricing strategy, and capital management that can be applicable to other countries.

Description: This article describes a method that can be useful when re-fitting a risk score model to a population of only moderate size. Learn how to use concepts like ridge regression to train a model with partial credibility.

Description: This article will highlight new model visualization approaches we use to shed light on the “black-box” nature of advanced modeling techniques. These visualizations help us better highlight and understand the key drivers of predictions so that they can be understood and validated by all stakeholders

Description: Overview of regularization and least angle regression approaches.

Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.

Description: Editorial for the December 2019 print edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism newsletter describing the large number of informational resources available to PAF Section members.

Description: There is a growing amount of “off-balance sheet” talent in the US and Global workforce. This spans from consultants and contractors, to gig workers and the crowd (both curated crowd and open crowd). One such example is Uber and Lyft workers. Insurance companies and the Actuarial profession have started to experiment with platforms such as Kaggle and this will continue to grow and evolve. This article explores these new sources of talent for companies, the implications to the actuarial function, benefits and challenges of the evolving workforce.

Description: This report proposes a methodology to isolate crop yield improvement due to technological change and favorable and unfavorable weather.