Description: One component of this project is to model the impact of population structure on returns across asset classes. Previous research suggests that an overlapping generations (OLG) model is an appropriate modeling approach. This literature review has been prepared to provide background information regarding OLG models and the diversity and complexity that may be introduced into such models. This review has been prepared to provide a fuller discussion of some of the characteristics that may be especially relevant in our decision-making regarding the model we will build.

Description: After a very challenging year, actuaries need to look back and consider the lessons learned. Have we returned to where we were, or have we moved on to a new norm? What does the COVID-19 pandemic market data tell us that will help us to prepare for future global crises?

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “History of Mortgage Finance With an Emphasis on Mortgage Insurance.” The paper presents the history of mortgage guarantee insurance in the US beginning briefly with the history of banks and banking regulation and ending with implications for the future. The discussant finds the paper clearly written and that it would make a useful reference based on a reading of a preliminary draft.

Description: Examines the link between population structure and asset values by generating returns on assets in the presence of demographic change using an OLG Model.

Description: Editor's reflection on article entitled, Forecasts That Missed by a Mile.

Description: The article makes reference to how the intervention by government agencies and institutions into the financial marketplace are creating distortions. This artificial tampering into market mechanisms will likely result in major financial dislocations down the road as natural economic forces (coined by the term "invisible hand") eventually are allowed to come into play.

Description: This keynote address at the SOA 1990 Annual Meeting is about how the changing international environment affects our economy.