Description: Can we improve upon traditional methods of risk measurement and risk selection? Panelists discuss potential applications of predictive modeling, including individual underwriting, group rating and provider reimbursement. They focus on ways in which predictive modeling can be used to improve risk selection, experience rating and provider reimbursement. A session at the Health/Pension Spring Meeting held in New Orleans, Louisiana June 15-17, 2005. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2.

Description: This chapter focuses on creating practical models that aid in the prediction of the risk of readmission to a specific hospital within 30 days of discharge for Medicare patients, to aid in the identification and stratification of at-risk patients for hospitals considering building an intervention program in a cost-effective manner. For readers who wish to develop their own predictive model, a dataset is provided on the Actexmadriver.com website, and R code is provided in the appendix to this chapter.

Description: The guest editorial details some valuable lessons during the author’s career as an employee benefits (mostly retirement) consultant, turned P&C predictive modeling, reporting and data warehousing lead, turned an analytic strategist and independent consultant.

Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: A description of the Technology Section's goals and accomplishments.

Description: Letter from the editor describing the contents of the issue.

Description: Research project that reviewed and inventoried the range of quality and efficiency measures that demonstrate the performance of hospitals and physicians. Besides outlining key areas of consideration for quality and efficiency measurement, this report also describes future opportunities for actuaries and other health professionals interested in this evolving area. The inventory part of this report is in a separate document.

Description: Technology has streamlined countless processes in our daily lives, and insurance is no stranger to this transformation. Technology can make insurance simpler and more personal for consumers, and can enable actuaries to better analyze unstructured data, make good decisions, create new products, and find channels to enhance profitability, provided they can tame the flood of information pouring in from across the digital ecosystem.

Description: A look at the near future and far future of various elements of Actuarial Models as defined through ASOP 51. What is driving the complexity for inputs, calculations, and outputs. Howe will actuaries handle these challenge?