Description: This paper addresses the fuzziness in regression models. The goal is to present a test procedure to explicitly examine whether an independent variable has a clear functional relationship with the dependent variable in a specific regression model, or whether their relationship is fuzzy. To this end, the authors interpret the spread of the regression coefficients as a statistic measuring the fuzziness of the relationship between the corresponding independent variable and the dependent variable. They then derive test distributions based on the null hypothesis that such spreads could have been obtained with data generated by a classical regression model with random errors. The analysis is presented in conceptual rather than technical terms.

Description: This paper gives a brief review of advanced time series models, the state space model, using Monte Carlo techniques and subsequently illustrates their usefulness to practicing actuaries. The models employed allow for the possibilities of nonnormal errors and nonlinear functionals in the state equation, the observational equation or both. The approach is illustrated with several examples and data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics.

Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 8D: Three Years After Model Conversion: How’s it Going? 9.1.21 Recording

Description: The author describes how his company was able to benefit from an application of risk theory.

Description: Historically different approaches have been used by actuaries in modeling mortality improvement. The SOA has recently released a framework that practitioners can use to project mortality improvement, providing methodological consistency across a range of applications.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 34PD, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. A fundamental step in stochastic asset/liability modeling is to choose an appropriate underlying economic scenario generator. In this session, panelists discuss various scenario generation techniques and theories, assumptions underlying interest and equity scenario generators, and choosing suitable economic scenario generators for different applications, the two most common being pricing models [for assets and liabilities], and risk analysis models, used for asset/liability management, investment strategy, regulatory solvency, and capital adequacy. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: In this paper the authors analyze data from group medical expense insurance claims and show that many insurance loss distributions have very 'heavy tails' because large losses represent a disproportionate fraction of the total cost. They also present a simple model to reproduce and explain the large loss behavior. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: Python has become the fastest-growing major programming language in the world. It has surged in popularity over the last decade, following the development of its industry-leading capabilities in data science, machine learning and artificial intelligence, and it is now one of the most globally popular and widely used languages. In this article, I discuss some of the reasons for its popularity and explain why many actuaries and insurers have started using Python.

Description: Employers, health plans, stop-loss insurers and reinsurers are all affected by the high cost of treating cancer. In recent years, cutting-edge pharmaceuticals, bone marrow transplants and CAR-T cell therapies have driven very high cost trends for cancer, with more emerging therapies on the horizon. In this session, we will review these new treatments, showcase models that aid in understanding the range of likely financial effects of the current, expanded, and likely-to-be approved indications for cell therapies that will treat certain patients affected by lymphoma, leukemia, and multiple myeloma. This session will explain important considerations for modeling Medicare, Medicaid versus commercial populations, key risk concerns caused by the size of enrollee pools, and important differences between the various therapies that affect modeling. We will also discuss averted cost, health outcomes, pricing levels, and risks caused by provider billing practices.

Description: Feature article describing a new method of computing professional athletes’ salaries using actuarial skills/ the economic value concept. From The Actuary Magazine, Dec 2009