Description: This article examines whether catastrophe models be used to predict actual catastrophe experience over a brief period of time.

Description: This paper presents actuarial (mathematical) models for cyber breach probability as function of the level and allocations of security spending by a firm.

Description: Fiduciaries play a vital role in the financial health of a pension plan. How they carry out their duties is a question of increasing interest to beneficiaries, regulators, shareholders and taxpayers. Having a clear, logical and well-documented risk management process in place can make a big difference.

Description: In this issue, we’re pleased to share with our members some recent nice activities and initiatives of AFIR- ERM on the risk management space. Please fi nd useful information in the article below from Michael Sherris, Chairman of AFIR- ERM Section.

Description: The author suggests ways to strengthen a company's enterprise risk management process, including the development of an "effective resilience factor," a risk metric that reflects an organization’s exposure and response to an adverse event, and measures the ability of the organization to mitigate the reduction in its operating level.

Description: There will be inflection points in the value of an instrument when interest rates change. These inflection points could materially impact the approximation of value change using ALM metrics. In this part of the seven-part series, I will highlight: • How to identify the inflection points; • the range of rate changes where ALM metrics may be relied upon i.e., the “validity” range, outside of which recalculation of the ALM metrics is required and the potential that one needs to rebalance the portfolio; • a technique to improve on the approximation of value change beyond the validity range; and • a technique to convert non-linear change on the yield curve to be used with duration and convexity.

Description: This article provides background and key results of the Risk Premium Project of the Committee on Theory of Risk [DOTOR] of the Casualty Actuarial Society [CAS]. The project is intended to gather research on risk issues and encourage further development.

Description: This article discusses how risk management was a central element in the conduct of monetary policy in the United States as espoused by then Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan .

Description: This article summarizes an emerging risk research project completed by the Joint Risk Management Section. The major categories of risks in the survey were 1. Economic, 2. Environmental, 3. Geopolitical, 4. societal and 5. Technological.

Description: Many life and health insurers are beginning to use Predictive Analytics (PA) for a variety of purposes. This article addresses the unique challenges and potential disruption PA brings to the risk manager, as well as the opportunities.