Description: Modeling Medical Cost Trends for Advancing Age in the Long Run

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is an abstract of the referenced article.

Description: Chapter 2 examines the interdependence and interconnectedness of demographic,, economic, and political factors that are driving the move for reforms in the Canadian pension system. The chapter also examines economic patterns among Canadian elderly. From Economic Security for an Aging Canadian Population, M-RS99-2.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2011. Using data from Social Security's Death Master File, this study shows that mortality deceleration in humans observed at advanced ages may be an artifact caused by age exaggeration, data heterogeneity or use of improper estimates of hazard rate. The phenomenon of mortality deceleration at older ages vanishes for datasets of higher data quality.

Description: Medical insurance today is more like pre-paid medical payments. Medical insurance should be bought for protection, but rarely used, like auto insurance.

Description: This paper builds a model that quantifies the natural hedging benefits of a portfolio of both variable annuities and equity indexed annuities. The model is based on risk-neutral option pricing theory and risk-adjusted performance measure, RAPM. Through a double-tier simulation framework, an optimum product mixture of those two contracts is achieved that provides the best RAPM and therefore deploys capital the most efficiently. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper assesses the extent to which equity investors were fooled by pension accounting. Simulations show that a failure to differentiate between core and pension earnings induces large valuation errors for many firms, although this pension effect did not materially contribute to aggregate overvaluation before 2000. From Current Pension Actuarial Practice in Light of Financial Economics Symposium, M-RS04-1.

Description: This paper recommends a 'macroview' of the Social Security program that is related to the broader economic and social environment now and in the future. OASDI is not simply a private-sector pension plan on a large scale. Instead, it provides socially determined claims on the future economy. Demography cannot be ignored, but it is not the sole determinant of what is desirable or affordable. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities -The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.