Description: The presenter will share his opinion on the major and minor cycle of the global and China economy. He believes that the recovery of the major cycle depends on the resonance of politics between China and the United States, as well as reform. As the minor cycle is V-type, the weak recovery depends on policy and price increase. The liquidity regulation and the growth advance together. The economic cycle is stabilizing, monetary policy is tightening the margin and the importance of the regulation is increasing. But the increase of the economy is critical to risk controlling.

Description: The article describes the nature of actuarial research conducted at the Goldenson Center at the University of Connecticut. One of the research projects to create a National Retirement Sustainability Index is analyzed in detail. It demonstrates how the work we do at the Goldenson Center is both an art and a science while satisfying the following research criteria we adhere to at the Goldenson Center:  >The problem has to come from industry  >The solution has to add value to what is currently done in practice  >The solution has to be implementable

Description: Article reviews the data a year into the unwinding of continuous coverage provisions in Medicaid, the impact on enrollment counts, how capitation rates have been adjusted, and compares those results to what has been modeled with the SOA Mediciad Unwinding model.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. The stated purpose of this paper is to consider whether a more comprehensive and timely measurement framework for risk exposure is now needed and to examine one possible approach. This paper proposes a new approach to risk measurement that, along with capital measurement and more rigorous oversight, will allow banks an ability to manage risk.

Description: This article attempts to make a modest contribution to the dialogue on the potential and risks associated with novel treatments such as cell & gene therapies. With a fast-expanding roster of what are believed to be one-time treatments at ever increasing price points aimed at curing a wider swatch of the population, they are as much a source of relief for patients stuck in medical limbo, as they are a source of anxiety for payers.

Description: Interview on opportunities for InsurTechs in Life and Health reinsurance. Themes covered include digital distribution and digital health data. The article also shares insights into the role of the reinsurer when working with InsurTechs.

Description: The article summarizes implications of rising interest rates on U.S. GAAP and statutory financial reporting for life insurers, highlighting potential tailwinds from steady increases and headwinds from sharp increases. We further provide insights into how insurers can leverage ALM programs and interest rate risk hedging practices to favorably position themselves in a rising rate environment

Description: In order for an organization to benefit from artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) models, it requires the involvement of different business areas. During this webcast, professionals from data analytics, audit and risk areas will address challenges and provide solutions for working together to develop, implement, use and risk manage AI/ML tools. Throughout the discussion, the presenters will discuss: • Defining and exploring the challenges and objectives between data scientists, domain experts and control functions • Risk management – model risks and other risks • End-to-end model validation • Model performance vs. interpretability/understandability trade-offs • What to audit – auditor’s challenge and solutions

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.