Description: This paper provides a description of a system using statistical spatial methods for measuring, analysis, and managing ERM losses. An example of its application to a delinquency rate in a residential mortgage portfolio analysis demonstrates how this methodology can help decrease a company’s exposure in high-risk areas and increase exposure in low-risk areas.

Description: Empirical evidence of reported losses suggests that insurance firms are interconnected in a nontrivial way, making them prone to systemic risk. Systemic risk can be viewed as the result of a cascading process, as it unravels throughout a network structure. In response, this work presents a simple analytical model that can simulate this process. The model is subsequently tested upon an empirical dataset via the means of numerical simulations. This work makes three main contributions. First, it provides a novel methodology for quantitatively and objectively assessing the systemic role of individual firms within the insurance domain. Second, it exemplifies the inability of traditional, firm-based information in serving as proxies for mapping these systemic effects. Third, it provides a practical example where network-based information (e.g., Criticality IDX, Sensitivity IDX) can outperform firm-based information (e.g., admissible assets, excess c apital) resulting in increased efficiency in the decision-making process. These findings strengthen the need to account for the interconnected nature of the domain while showcasing some of the potential benefits that can be harvested by doing so.

Description: This paper establishes a framework to analyze the volatility of corporate profits as a result of variability in accounting for pension plans. It models a Canadian corporation that maintains a defined-benefit pension plan and that has adequate cash flow to fully fund the pension plan, should it wish. Volatility of corporate profits is important because many senior executives have some component of their compensation directly related to corporate profitability and consequently do not want any surprises with respect to actual profits compared to expected profits. The volatility management techniques considered are investment policies for the pension plan, funding the pension plan, and an alternative plan design. The analysis is timely since changes are proposed to the accounting standards to eliminate most smoothing techniques. The results suggest that, depending on the investment environment, reduced volatility may be accompanied by by enhanced return, which is a result that few would expect.

Description: This paper examines the impact at Harvard Pilgrim Health Care of the introduction of specialty networks, shift to mail-order prescriptions, shifts to generic prescriptions, and product mix shifts to overall pharmacy trend. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: We suggest a new method of latent variable analysis and apply it for describing mortality changes in developed countries over the period of 1900--2014.

Description: Abstract: The percentage of the population who are obese has grown dramatically worldwide over the last several decades, although stabilizing recently in the United States. Studies have found the effects on mortality to be inconsistent and controversial because of methodological differences and the complexity of the relationship between obesity and mortality. This paper discusses this relationship and sheds light on the likely effects of this epidemic. Issues associated with the so-called obesity-mortality paradox, where mortality experience is lower for those individuals who are overweight and in some who are obese compared with the mortality of those in the normal weight category, are examined. Although certain recently reported studies of the relationship between mortality and obesity indicate that obesity is related to a reduced percent of additional mortality, this may in part be due to the shorter average time that those currently obese have been exposed to their condition. Nevertheless, the amount of health care costs and rates of disability associated with being obese are significant, contributing to the increase in overall health care costs as they become more numerous and age. Although obesity is being addressed with a great deal of activity and publicity, they will continue to prove challenging for individuals and society to manage and overcome.

Description: Established as part of the 1998 Utah State legislative session, the State of Utah's Children's Health Insurance Program CHIP delivers much-needed health insurance to children that are not eligible for Medicaid and who are below certain poverty levels. From Prescription Drugs Monograph, M-HB04-1.

Description: This paper focuses on when and how we retire.

Description: This paper talks about shifting from defined benefit to defined contribution plans and the risk involved.

Description: Empirical evidence of reported losses suggests that insurance firms are interconnected in a nontrivial way, making them prone to systemic risk. Systemic risk can be viewed as the result of a cascading process, as it unravels throughout a network structure. In response, this work presents a simple analytical model that can simulate this process. The model is subsequently tested upon an empirical dataset via the means of numerical simulations. This work makes three main contributions. First, it provides a novel methodology for quantitatively and objectively assessing the systemic role of individual firms within the insurance domain. Second, it exemplifies the inability of traditional, firm-based information in serving as proxies for mapping these systemic effects. Third, it provides a practical example where network-based information (e.g., Criticality IDX, Sensitivity IDX) can outperform firm-based information (e.g., admissible assets, excess c apital) resulting in increased efficiency in the decision-making process. These findings strengthen the need to account for the interconnected nature of the domain while showcasing some of the potential benefits that can be harvested by doing so.