Description: Editor's reflection on article entitled, Forecasts That Missed by a Mile.

Description: A review of product and sales trends for variable, indexed and fixed annuities against the current backdrop of low interest rates and record equity market valuations

Description: The purpose of this document is to provide information regarding the specifications of the model to be produced in connection with the project, Population Aging, Implications for Asset Values, and Impact for Pension Plans: An International Study. The authors are seeking input from actuaries and others interested in this work.

Description: Examines the link between population structure and asset values by generating returns on assets in the presence of demographic change using an OLG Model.

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “History of Mortgage Finance With an Emphasis on Mortgage Insurance.” The paper presents the history of mortgage guarantee insurance in the US beginning briefly with the history of banks and banking regulation and ending with implications for the future. The discussant finds the paper clearly written and that it would make a useful reference based on a reading of a preliminary draft.

Description: This working paper discusses the risks of investing in stocks in public pension funds.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Outlook for the dynamic economy is the keynote address at 1976 Spring Meeting covering short term economic outlook and characteristics of the US economic system in general.

Description: This session from the 1981 SOA Spring Meeting discusses how the insurance industry will fare under different economic conditions according to an economotric model by Data Resources - DRI. The session also reviews how to incorporate inflation into actuarial calculations and the prospects and possiblities regarding inflation. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 7, No. 2.

Description: The author describes a theory of long-term interest-rate trends, originally propounded in 1899 by actuary Charlton T. Lewis, and how well the theory stands up in light of 20th century experience.