Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: This presentation provided an analysis of investment guarantees in equity-linked products. There was an overview of the data and models in use. In addition an actuarial approach to left-tail analysis was presented as well as a dynamic hedging approach. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This research report summarizes methodologies used for yield curve extrapolation to value liability cash flows that extend beyond the maximum observavble portion of the yield curve.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of a reinsurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. Bounds on the expected exercise value of a financial option are considered also because the mathematical model used for valuing options is similar to that used in reinsurance net premium calculations. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.

Description: This is a summary of the progress of a Credit Risk Study sponsored by the Society of Actuaries analyzing the credit risk of private placement bonds and commercial mortgage loans. This study is a pilot effort undertaken to determine the feasibility of such a study on a regular basis.

Description: This paper presents a new perspective on three basic financial quantities: assets, liabilities and surplus. The new perspective is developed through a re-examination of the fundamental concepts inherent in these quantities. This re-examination clarifies the difference between the concept and the various rules commonly used to establish their numerical value. With the benefit of this clarification, an alternate approach to the development of surplus is presented. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper discusses contracts sold by states which promised to provide tuition in the future for a fixed price. Because these contracts provide a benefit whose dollar value is uncertain at the time of sale, these contracts contain significant risks to the states and create a challenge to the actuaries who opine on the adequacy of the trust funds to provide the benefits promised by these contracts. This article discusses some of the implications of the method used by the major states to project tuition inflation and explores other possible methods. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: This paper explores the considerations involved in the merger of mutual life insurance companies, with emphasis on the unique problems of maintenance of equity between the various policy owners affected. The paper written by Howard Kayton and Robert Tookey is followed by a discussion from several people

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Investment Section and Committee on Finance Research and Investment Section is pleased to make available a research report using a comprehensive attribution analysis to identify meaningful relationships between market volatility and potential causes. Also included for educational purposes are the open-source codes used to perform the analysis.

Description: Many seniors who own houses in the United States have most of their wealth in their houses. Home Equity Conversion Mortgages are designed to allow seniors to borrow money against their house. This paper describes a stochastic simulation approach used to estimate the amount of a level-payment annuity payable as long as the senior is alive and living in his/her home. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2.