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Assessing Regime Switching Equity Return Models
Assessing Regime Switching Equity Return Models The purpose of this paper is to help practitioners and regulators more accurately quantify the potential impact of market risk on insurance ...Description: The purpose of this paper is to help practitioners and regulators more accurately quantify the potential impact of market risk on insurance products with equity-linked guarantees. To this end, this paper examines time series model selection and assessment based on residuals, with a focus on regime switching models. Also it discusses the difficulties in defining residuals for such processes and propose several possible alternatives. We determine that a stochastic approach to defining the residuals is the only way to generate residuals that are normally distributed under the model hypothesis.
Hide- Authors: R Keith Freeland, Mary Hardy, Matthew Charles Till
- Date: Apr 2009
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Topics: Annuities>Equity-indexed annuities; Finance & Investments; Modeling & Statistical Methods