Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the purposes, tools and methods available, scenario testing, updating, special issues and problems. This discussion anticipates the development of new Valuation Actuary reserve adequacy opinion requirements.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: This article describes the use of artificial society modeling to gauge the effect of insurance agent population and effectiveness on individual life insurance sales. This is part of an ongoing effort to extend the use of one type of agent-based modeling beyond health care, but is far from a practical application at this point.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute received a grant from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) to educate insurance actuaries on the use of wildfire risk datasets and models to be developed by researchers from academia and the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA).

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2002. This paper proposes a standard operating procedure for testing the Gompertz assumption using yearly age-specific mortality data, and the impacts of the data collection period and population sizes on the testing results are discussed.

Description: Appendix D is round 2 - reasons for projections from the Delphi study. See SOA website Research section for the full report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the appendices.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: Consensus of viewpoints from a group discussion on economic forecasting at the March meeting of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.