Description: This is the informal discussion transcript for Concurrent Session 2A: Drivers of Future Mortality for the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: This is the informal discussion transcript from Session 3A: Mortality Inequality; Impact of Socioeconomic Factors from the 2017 Living to 100 Symposium.

Description: This is the discussant comments for the concurrent Session 4B: Mortality Projections from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium, January 2002. This is a report of a study in which the Cox proportional hazard model, a widely used survival analysis tool, was applied to profiling the mortality of an insured advanced-age population. The data was derived from 14 US insurers. This data represents policies issued between 01/01/1997 and 12/31/2000 to policyholders of age 60 or older. The major study results include measures of mortality, variations by selected risk factors, estimated mortality experience of the underlying population, and a comparison of mortality experience estimated by direct calculation, the Society of Actuaries’ SOA 1990-95 mortality study, and our extended Cox modeling technique.

Description: As a life reinsurer, understanding mortality risk is mission critical. Superior models of mortality risk lead to more competitive pricing in profitable market segments and more efficient use of capital. Surprisingly, modern statistical tools such as predictive modeling have not previously been used to model mortality data to gain this edge. In this paper, we present the use of a predictive modeling technique called projection pursuit regression PPR to model mortality data. We first describe the process of creating a PPR model using inter-company mortality data collected by the Individual Life Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries, and present the resulting model. We then discuss the process of using this model as a starting point for creating a more detailed PPR model of internal company mortality data.

Description: In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of the Lee-Carter mortality index parameter kt. Specifically, we perform statistical hypothesis tests to examine whether the mortality indexes for Canada, England and Wales and the United States are best described by stochastic trends difference stationary models or deterministic trends trend stationary models. The empirical results favor broken-trend stationary models over difference stationary models, which are used in most previous applications of the Lee-Carter method. The results also give strong statistical evidence that the rates of mortality decline for the three populations have significantly accelerated in mid-1970s.

Description: The is the informal discussion transcript from Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends from the January 4-6, 2017 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando.

Description: We employ a framework for the classification of mortality evolution patterns to HMD data. We find both supra-regional patterns and outliers from global trends.

Description: This article investigates the simplicity of the Balducci hypothesis, and compares the fractional-age death probability given by three widely used assumptions: uniform distribution of deaths, the Balducci hypothesis, and constant force of mortality [1, 2].