Description: The author explains how he used judgmental forecasting techniques to develop a dynamic lapse assumption. He defines the techniques and provides readers with a step-by-step process.

Description: December 2016 edition of Predictive Analytics & Futurism

Description: Provides details of the 2nd forecasting competition for the best model that predicts the Civilian Unemployment Rate 'UNRATE', measured on a monthly basis, from March-end 2012 through September-end 2012.

Description: This article is about research studies that use the Delphi technique. It describes what a Delphi study is and gives a thumbnail sketch of two Delphi studies the Society of Actuaries has sponsored in the past 10 years, as well as a recently initiated Delphi study.

Description: This article describes the history and in some respects, the future of Big Data, and the tools we can use to handle it for PM and for machine learning. One such tool is Vowpal Wabbit, which sounds like something from a Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd cartoon (“Dwat that wabbit”), but it really is a popular approach to process a dataset of any size, as there is no need to load all the data into memory. Big data is forcing us to enhance many of our tools. So is the increased actuarial usage of stochastic-in-stochastic analyses (nested stochastic processes), which can result in unacceptably long program run times. Many of our popular computer languages are not inherently well suited for parallel computations.

Description: Discusses the three complexity science sessions at the Annual Meeting that were sponsored by the Section.

Description: The author discusses the field of artificial intelligence, as well as some of the key definitions along with some possible applications.

Description: In Complexity: A Guided Tour, readers are given a short history lesson on the roots of dynamical systems theory, chaos and prediction.

Description: Looks at free and inexpensive resources for the novice in predictive analytics, covering the data analysis theory as well as the most commonly used languages/software used in the field.

Description: A description of how to use Deep Learning and TensorFlow