Description: This is the abstract of the paper Quasi-Monte Carlo Methods in Numerical Finance. This paper introduces and illustrates a new version of the Monte Carl method that has attractive properties for the numerical valuation of derivatives. The traditional Monte Carlo method has proven to be a powerful and flexible tool for many types of derivatives calculations.

Description: Random sum models with compound distributions are used extensively in modeling of insurance risks. Unfortunately, the compound distributions themselves are awkward to evaluate. Consequently, various numerical and analytical approximative techniques have been used. In this talk we derive various upper and lower bounds on the tails of compound distributions. Some notions in reliability theory are used.

Description: This paper introduces a new direction for evaluating numerically survival probabilities pointed out by H. Seal in his book ‘Survival Probabilities: The goal of Risk Theory’. Some of special cases can be considered as a weighted Poisson process with an infinitely divisible mixing distribution. This property is well known for the negative binomial case [gamma mixing distribution].

Description: Demography is a very exciting subject. With a simple mathematical model, students can project a country's population forward 25, 59, 75 even 100 years. This paper will focus on six ideas from demography. They all can be useful to an actuary, yet none of them would be considered at any length if the actuary didn’t study demography.

Description: A summary of the activities of the Forecasting & Futurism Section, including research initiatives, participation in Delphi studies and sponsoring of seminars.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.

Description: Comparison of healthcare costs for early retirees versus active workers in the same age band. When adjusted for age, there is not a significant difference in costs between each group.

Description: Identifies current trends and considerations when setting the mortality improvement assumption for individual life insurance in the US.

Description: An Overview of Stochastic Simulation modeling techniques and usages

Description: From a session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 In this session the panelists discussed the issues related to the actuarial aspects associated with the demutualization process. The issues discussed included: • Developing historical and prospective assumptions • Aligning the models used in the company’s philosophy regarding dividend determination and pricing • Creating experience assumptions when less-than-perfect data exist • Determining who gets what • Complying with actuarial and accounting standards