Description: Third article in a series on how to use predictive analytics to improve the development of long-term care projection assumptions.

Description: A general introduction about predictive modeling in insurance applications. Some basic models are discussed, such as Generalized Linear Model(GLM), Calssification and Regression Tree Model. Other models are also briefly introduced, including data clustering, neural networks and support vector machine.

Description: An Overview of Stochastic Simulation modeling techniques and usages

Description: Research report sponsored by SOA to model and compare projected costs of different proposals for a Medicare prescription drug coverage plan. 3 types of costs are studied: net benefit cost estimates per member per month, continuance table data, and projected annual costs to the government over 10 years for two selected plan designs.

Description: This presentation introduces the Threshold Life Table as a solution to the problem of modeling mortality for extreme ages. This method is based on extreme value theory, and it avoids the need to extrapolate beyond an arbitrary age. This method produces an omega, the highest attainable age, without it being chosen arbitrarily.

Description: This paper uses a mortality surge model to estimate the total financial impact on the U.S. insurance industry of a flu pandemic. It does not attempt to determine the probability of such a pandemic.

Description: The author recommends the use of "minimally destructive scenarios" as part of an ORSA process, in order to deal with cognitive bias that can occur in risk decision-making. Part of the essay collection "Risk Metrics for Decision Making and ORSA"

Description: Even the best algorithms are only effective if they are trained on appropriate data. This article discusses common pitfalls in creating a training data set.

Description: The authors explore a new approach to the premium persistency assumption in universal life products.

Description: This paper explores the principles upon which experience-rated group insurance currently is based and discusses the question of whether or not these principles are sound. Followed by discussion papers submitted by several authors