Description: A summary of the Global Trends 2030 report, the fifth such report produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council. The report is based on the research and analysis of the 17 major intelligence agencies in the US. The summary covers the highlights of the report.

Description: Book Review of How to Cope with the Developing Financial Crisis by Ashby Bladen, McGraw Hill, New York, 1979

Description: The author of this article, The Actuary’s editor, notes that this article is a capsule of what may be called “the Angle/Bladen theme.” John C. Angle spoke at Hartford in April 1980 see the Record for that meeting, pp. 188-193. His investment colleague, Ashby Bladen, addressed our Annual Meeting in Montreal last October 1980. Their observations were about mutual life insurance in the United States. The article notes that the current economic environment, with interest rates “far outside the familiar 3% to 6% range,” is a difficult one for life insurers and their traditional products, that we are becoming less conservative when the risk of serious economic trouble is rising, and “a satisfactory future depends on restoring stability, not upon trying to learn how to cope with instability.”

Description: Our November Query asked which groups, in addition to debtors and those blessed with amply indexed incomes, seem to have profited most conspicuously from the past decade’s inflation. This article summarizes the results.

Description: Outlook for the dynamic economy is the keynote address at 1976 Spring Meeting covering short term economic outlook and characteristics of the US economic system in general.

Description: Baseline illustrations for article about the Delphi project to predict economic conditions far into the future in 2024. Measures under examination are 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year T-Bill yield, 3. S&P500 rate of return and 4. Corporate Baa bond yield. See the SOA website research section for the full report on the Delphi Study of Economic Variables.

Description: This presentation is a section meeting from the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held October 20-23 in Toronto. The guest speaker discusses prospective returns on financial assets, noting that the past, particularly the 1980s, is in many respects irrelevant in making projections of future returns, noting the decade of the 1980s was a nonrecurring and unsustainable period. He provides his thoughts in terms of projected real economic growth, projected inflation, projected real interest rates, and using that data makes projections of returns from a variety of financial assets. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 17, No. 4B.

Description: Evan Borisenko looks at previous challenging environments for the life insurance industry, such as the a period of severe stagnation in the 1930s, the increased inflation in the 1980s and a catastrophe like the Spanish influenza after the World War I. Evan explains that "while each event described above challenged the life insurance industry in a unique way, each event stimulated an equally unique solution." The article concludes that we "fight to repeat history" in a way that we as actuaries should be able to propose unique solutions with when faced with crisis in the future.

Description: This article summarizes the responses of nine readers who answered The Actuary’s April Query, on the assertion by two Harvard economists that government deficits are being exaggerated unless allowance is made for the declining value of the dollar.

Description: This article discusses the difficulties in how to deflate overheated economies, and at the same time to stimulate productivity and maintain high employment. It also describes the results of Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's monetary and fiscal policies to achieve these goals.