Description: This paper introduces a conjecture as to a method for estimating how much has to be added to the probability of ruin by n claims to obtain the probability of ultimate ruin. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 Vol. 2 .

Description: Sooner or later a casualty actuary is confronted by the question, Given a history of paid loss amounts by calendar year, what should reserves be? Often, it is not possible to accurately gather and analyze additional data within the time constraints for the reserving decision. The algebraic reserving method presented in this paper offers one approach to rapidly addressing this problem.

Description: This paper discusses a class of asymmetric distributions arising in a random summation scheme. Members of the class are called asymmetric Laplace distributions as the standard Laplace distributions, which are symmetric, constitute a proper subclass. Among distributions which are limits in random summation schemes, asymmetric Laplace distributions play an analogous role to that of normal distributions among distributional limits of non-random sums. Asymmetric LaPlace laws are more 'peaky' and have heavier tails than normal laws. They have stability properties and are convenient in applications, as their densities have explicit forms and estimation procedures are easily implemented. Anticipating increasing interest in this class of distributions, the authors present statistical tools which can be utilized in practice, including algorithms for simulation and estimation. They also discuss more general classes of distributions, where asymmetric Laplace distributions appear as special cases.

Description: Panelists discuss the process and challenges presented by mergers or acquisitions. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 2.

Description: All claim reserve systems endeavor to derive estimates of the unpaid portion of claims which have been incurred over a given period of time, making use of information on numbers of claims and amounts paid on claims as of the valuation date. In this paper, a claim reserve system is described. While the system does produce the traditional type of single-point estimates of claim reserves, it also provides the user with frequency distributions of claim reserves

Description: The purpose of this note is to show how certain formulas of life contingencies can be derived almost painlessly under the uniform distribution of deaths assumption.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: This paper discusses the actuarial risk measures and uses a variety of estimation techniques such as nonparametric approach, parametric methods and robust procedures. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference, Iowa City, Iowa, August 5-7, 2004.

Description: Article What Actuaries Need To Know About Constructing Mortality Tables by Jones in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: The purpose of this paper is to introduce a practical method for interpolation and smoothing and give a number of numerical examples using the method. The method is a variation of the Whittaker-Henderson method. Discussions of this paper are included.