Description: Examines the link between population structure and asset values by generating returns on assets in the presence of demographic change using an OLG Model.

Description: Delinquency rates are closely related to the economic conditions and can be analyzed using measures of economic growth and stability. In an attempt to predict the delinquency rate for the health care equipment financial industry, we investigated the relationship between delinquency rate and key macroeconomic variables for the period from 1998 to 2008. The study reveals that the tightening credit standards and unemployment rate are the key macroeconomic indicators influencing the delinquency rate. The analysis further helps in arriving at a trigger to monitor the delinquency rate based on the macroeconomic indicators, thus enabling proactive portfolio management. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Discussant comments for the 2009 Housing Wealth monograph paper, “History of Mortgage Finance With an Emphasis on Mortgage Insurance.” The paper presents the history of mortgage guarantee insurance in the US beginning briefly with the history of banks and banking regulation and ending with implications for the future. The discussant finds the paper clearly written and that it would make a useful reference based on a reading of a preliminary draft.

Description: The purpose of this document is to provide information regarding the specifications of the model to be produced in connection with the project, Population Aging, Implications for Asset Values, and Impact for Pension Plans: An International Study. The authors are seeking input from actuaries and others interested in this work.

Description: This working paper discusses the risks of investing in stocks in public pension funds.

Description: This session from the 1981 SOA Spring Meeting discusses how the insurance industry will fare under different economic conditions according to an economotric model by Data Resources - DRI. The session also reviews how to incorporate inflation into actuarial calculations and the prospects and possiblities regarding inflation. From Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 7, No. 2.

Description: Baseline illustrations for article about the Delphi project to predict economic conditions far into the future in 2024. Measures under examination are 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year T-Bill yield, 3. S&P500 rate of return and 4. Corporate Baa bond yield. See the SOA website research section for the full report on the Delphi Study of Economic Variables.

Description: A summary of the Global Trends 2030 report, the fifth such report produced every four years by the National Intelligence Council. The report is based on the research and analysis of the 17 major intelligence agencies in the US. The summary covers the highlights of the report.

Description: Outlook for the dynamic economy is the keynote address at 1976 Spring Meeting covering short term economic outlook and characteristics of the US economic system in general.

Description: Microinsurance mechanisms provide coverage to low income earners, but a growing middle class is often lacking adequate access to insurance services. The author explores ways in which insurance may be more accessible.