Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper suggests the use of a policy event-based loss estimation method using expert input and simulation for forecasting long duration expenditures: that is to say, there is an efficient time, which is random and observable to replace a physical asset.

Description: Reviews book entitled Stochastic Theory of a Risk Business by Hilary Seal. Book presents a comprehensive survey of the literature on the mathematical foundations of risk taking as a business.

Description: A European call option pricing model similar to the Black-Scholes equation [1] is derived. Like the Black-Scholes equation, the model is based upon an assumption of a lognormal distribution of the price of a risky, non-dividend-paying security at a given point in the future. However, unlike Black-Scholes, the market's risk preference is recognized through a parameter that permits refinement of the model to agree either with experience or with future advances in the underlying theory.

Description: This paper focuses on two aspects of SFAS 87. The first is the availability of the discount rate, and its consequences. The second is the corridor approach to gains and losses amortization. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 2.

Description: This session covers stochastic modeling processes currently in use and explores others that may be beneficial to health actuaries. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 31, No. 2, Session 76

Description: This article is a book review of “Two Stochastic Processes,” by John A. Beekman. The author of this article notes that the two stochastic processes referred to in the book are the Gaussian Markov and the collective risk stochastic processes, and that both the theory and applications are examined. Note: a more detailed review of this book will appear in the Transactions.

Description: An interview with Prof. Johnny Li of University of Waterloo, which touches upon the subjects of longevity, mortality projections, international collaboration and the Living to 100 Symposium. Longevity is a topic in which scientific research and collaboration successfully spans many countries, which is desirable because the implications of ever increasing life spans is of global importance.

Description: This article presents a case study that examines the implication of using real-world interest rate scenario generators with a block of fixed deferred annuities. We contrast cash flow testing results based on New York 7 deterministic scenarios to stochastic scenarios generated with the Academy Interest Rate Generator , as well as an alternative economic scenario generator designed explicitly to capture the risk of a persistently low interest rate environment and the transition to a rising interest rate environment.

Description: In computing actuarial measurements, such as the moments of present value functions for insurance and annuities, the stochastic nature of the interest rate is commonly ignored. This paper treats the interest rate as a normal random variable and presents general formulas for the mean and variance of the present value function for insurance and annuities. An example demonstrating these formulas is presented. It is found that taking the force of interest to be fixed at a mean value results in slightly underestimating the actuarial present value along with the variance for both insurance and annuities.

Description: This article provides an overview of the different types of real world interest rate scenarios that practitioners use in the life insurance industry and explores different approaches to building those generators.